HALF-FULL REPORT 12/16/16
Isn’t this just the nicest picture of Hillary you’ve ever seen? She’s still in total shellshock arriving at the party she held for her donors at The Plaza hotel last night (12/15).
Today it was announced that FBI Director James Comey has declared there is no evidence Russians hacked the US election.
Comey noted that Director of National Intelligence James Clapper agreed with the FBI’s assessment, while the only intelligence official pushing the Russian Hack Fake News story was the CIA’s John Brennan, who, Comey said, “takes his marching orders from President Obama.” Ouch.
In response, Bitter John Podesta wrote a screed in the WaPo this morning (12/16) about the FBI being broken. Maybe, John, but you and Hillary and every other Dem losing schmuck in the country are still residing along that river in Egypt. You can stay there and stew in your bile for as long as you want.
Meanwhile, 72 hours from now, Donald J. Trump will officially and legally be President-elect of the United States. This Watermelon Recount Russian Hack Fake News CIA Attempted Coup d’état Farce will be over. Flipping Electors is a Dem hallucination.
TRUMPING PUTIN
Let’s make this clear at the outset: The world’s most powerful man isn’t.
Yesterday (12/14), Forbes Magazine issued its list of “The World’s Most Powerful People 2016.” 74 names are listed, one for every 100 million of the world’s 7.4 billion. It’s fun to see Zero plummeting to #48, Chuckie Schumer dead last at #74, and Hillary not on the list at all.
But it’s a Forbes Farce to claim Vlad Putin is #1. It’s like claiming the naked emperor really has some clothes on. Putin has been pulling off the world’s greatest bluff for years now – 2016 is the fourth year in a row he’s been Forbes’ Numero Uno.
It’s like all those ubiquitous pictures of a bare-chested big-muscled Putin riding horses and killing tigers – when the guy is five-foot-six, and I know from personal experience not that strong. It’s like all those giant statues of Lenin everywhere in the days Russia was the Soviet Union, when Lenin was actually five-foot-one.
The notion that Trump will be Putin’s puppet is ludicrous. It’s the other way around. Trump the consummate deal-maker knows how to smoke out a bluff better than anyone.
That said, there’s no doubt that Putin will not instantly fold with Trump, but will continue bluffing until Trump calls his hand.
I believe Trump will call for cards and soon. Here are two tests for my prediction.
THE STRONG HORSE
“When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse.”
This was the justification of Osama bin Laden’s 9/11 attack on America, thinking it would demonstrate Al Qaeda was the horse for the world to follow, not that of a weak America.
He expected the U.S. to treat 9/11 as a law enforcement matter, as President Clinton had al Qaeda’s attacks on our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and the USS Cole. And indeed, that’s exactly what would have happened if his vice-president had been president in September 2001.
Thus Osama and his henchmen got the greatest shock of their lives when the American president turned out to be the opposite of a pussy like Algore. As Osama’s 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, told his CIA interrogator James Mitchell:
“How was I supposed to know that cowboy George Bush would announce he wanted us ‘dead or alive’ and then invade Afghanistan to hunt us down?”
For the last eight years, we’ve had a weak horse in the White House. America will now have a president who understands, as Niccolo Machiavelli counseled a half millennium ago (in 1513), that “It is better for the prince to be feared than loved.”
TRUMP AND HEZBOLLAH-IRAN
Jerusalem. Israeli officials are thrilled with the national security team that US President-elect Donald Trump is assembling. And they are right to be. The question now is how Israel should respond to the opportunity they present us with.
The one issue that brings together all of the top officials Trump has named so far to his national security team is Iran.
During his video address before the Saban Forum (12/04), Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said that he looks forward to discussing Obama’s nuclear deal with the Iranian regime with Trump after his inauguration next month.
Given that Netanyahu views Iran’s nuclear program — which the nuclear deal guaranteed would be operational in 14 years at most — as the most serious strategic threat facing Israel, it makes sense that he wishes to discuss the issue first.
But Netanyahu may be better advised to first address the conventional threat Iran poses to Israel, the US and the rest of the region in the aftermath of the nuclear deal.
There are two reasons to start with Iran’s conventional threat, rather than its nuclear program.
IS CHINA POWERLESS AGAINST TRUMP?
On Fox News Sunday (12/11), with a single incendiary comment on Taiwanese independence, US president-elect Donald Trump has abrogated a central tenet of US foreign policy for the last 37 years and seems to have picked a deliberate fight with China.
Mr. Trump’s language ereyesterday was explicit: “I fully understand the ‘One China policy, but don’t know why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.” This is a bombshell.
The world’s two superpowers are now heading for a showdown on a neuralgic strategic issue, greatly raising the risk of a trade war and a fundamental breakdown of the global commercial system.
However…there is little that Beijing can do to damage the US without hurting itself far more. China’s financial options are limited. Veiled threats to detonate a US debt crisis by selling Beijing’s $1.157 trillion of US Treasury bonds, to take just one example, are mere bluster.
So what can China do regarding the wily presidential deal-maker?
TRUMP IN TAIWAN
The 10-minute telephone conversation between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. president-elect Donald J. Trump on December 2 was the first such conversation between a sitting president in Taiwan and a U.S. president or president-elect since Washington broke official diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979.
The reactions ranged worldwide, from consternation at Trump’s breaking with longstanding policy to hopes for deeper relations between the United States and the democratic island nation.
Most analysis of the call overlooks a crucial component: Tsai’s own calculations and the domestic reaction on Taiwan. That’s what we’ll discuss here.
As is often the case, little effort was made to analyze why Taiwan’s first female president, in office since May 20 and brought to power in January via democratic election, was willing to place a call that, if Trump picked up at the other end of the line, was certain to spark some controversy.
Even less was said about reactions in Taiwan, particularly its 23 million citizens, who far too often in the rare instances of international attention are denied a voice of their own – as if all of them were little more than insentient subjects to the implacable waves of history or the dictates of decision makers in Washington and Beijing.
DYNAMIC TAX REFORM
Do you want tax reform? Now, for the difficult questions: What is your definition of tax reform? And what will be the consequences of each of your proposals?
One impediment to constructive tax reform is the very rules under which Congress operates.
Without getting into the complexities of the so-called budget “reconciliation” process, tax reform is limited by a requirement that tax reductions be “paid for” by other tax increases or spending cuts.
For decades, many of us have been in the battle to use “dynamic scoring” rather than “static scoring” in determining the “costs” of tax reduction.
Dynamic scoring is the attempt to look at the feedback effects of tax changes, such as the number of new jobs and, hence, taxable wages that would be created.
WHY PUTIN ENVIES TRUMP
HALF-FULL REPORT 12/09/16
Getting tired of winning yet? Hope not, ‘cause the show is just getting started.
This morning (12/09), the Daily Mail reports in detail how Trump is exactly right in claiming Boeing’s cost for the new Air Force One is over $4 billion.
Even CNBC News had to admit: Trump’s Air Force One Tweet Was A Brilliant Move.
When I called Jack Kelly to thank him for the great HFR he wrote in my absence last week, he told me something I didn’t know – that Marine General and Defense Secretary-designate James “Mad Dog” Mattis has a huge bear rug lying in his living room.
“The thing is,” Jack tells me, “is that the bear isn’t dead – he’s just afraid to move.”
OK – we’re off! The HFR is packed this week with good news you need to know. Plus there’s a very important announcement at the end – and there’s the HFR Hero of the Year. Here we go…
THERE’S A NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN
What can you say to this picture, taken at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, except OMG?
A multi-billionaire President and the hottest First Lady in US history. A billionaire who can’t be bought, can’t be intimidated, who’s flamboyantly proud of being a self-made capitalist, who refuses to apologize for his wealth, who genuinely loves his country and is determined to defend it, who knows just what it takes to create widespread prosperity with plentiful good jobs…
… and a wife that leaves the wife of every other leader on earth in the dust. A First Lady so stunning that if she were standing next to a Ferrari (and you didn’t know who she was), you wouldn’t notice the car.
The focus so far is the impact Trump will have on America. It’s time for that focus to go global. There’s not only a new sheriff in town in America – there’s a new sheriff in town for the entire world.
As in so many Western movies, the job of the new sheriff is to rid the town of the corrupt old sheriff and his gang of bullies. In the movies, this is normally done with bullets and fists. They still have their place. As Mad Dog Mattis says, “Some folks need killing” – like ISIS terrorists. It’s why we have a military – why Trump will have a military of warriors instead of Obama’s transgenders.
For the most part, however, Trump will be a game-changer for America and the world on far deeper and foundational levels. The first level will be economic, the second cultural, the third and deepest psychological. It is going to be absolutely fascinating to watch how these unfold.