HALF-FULL REPORT 11/04/16
"It ain't over till it's over."
How long have we heard that Donald Trump was not only doomed, but 30-points-down doomed? Done deal. Hopeless. Not even worth talking about. I'm not telling you he'll win today. But I am telling you he can win.
In a race between the two most hated people in the history of major party nominees, the one who can drive the other's negatives higher is going to win.
******* Comey's bombshell re-opening of the FBI's case against Hillary Clinton -- as a result of the discovery of over 650,000 previously undisclosed emails on a computer owned by Huma Abedin and her estranged husband Anthony Weiner, under investigation for child porn -- is, of course, the impetus for the transformation in Trump’s fortunes.
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So let’s come full circle and look at the polls. Trump is now beating Clinton 53-43 among voters who’ve made up their minds. That’s a very, very big deal
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This is the week's HFR leading up to the Presidential Elections! You can't miss this!!!
Join the forum discussion on this postTHE FBI SURPRISE
Who’da thunk the FBI would spring the Mother of all October Surprises?
The Bureau is reopening its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s emails, because thousands more have been discovered on the laptop computer of Anthony Weiner, soon to be ex-husband of Hillary aide and confidante Huma Abedin, Director James Comey said in a letter to Congress Oct. 28.
In early October, agents investigating whether Mr. Weiner sent lewd texts to an underage girl found 650,000 emails on his computer, thousands to or from Ms. Abedin, according to the must read story by Wall Street Journal investigative reporter Devlin Barrett.
Republicans bashed Mr. Comey for giving Hillary a pass after acknowledging she was negligent in handling classified information and destroyed evidence. Now Democrats hammer the FBI director for making the new probe public 12 days before the election.
Director Comey may have felt he had no choice. Here’s why.
WHO’S PUTIN FOR?
I keep wondering why so many smart people believe Vladimir Putin is doing everything possible to win the election for Donald Trump.
If I were Putin, I’d prefer Hillary. Bigtime.
Putin’s got a lot going with Hillary. His pals donated more than a hundred million dollars to the Clinton Family Foundation while she was secretary of state, and they gained ownership of twenty percent of America’s uranium supply.
If Putin were really trying to elect Trump, he’d be leaking the details of that relationship.
Plus, if I were Putin and really wanted Hillary elected, I’d be inclined to openly endorse Trump, on the theory that most U.S. voters would reason “if Putin likes the guy, we’re better off without him.”
CHECKMATING OBAMA AT THE UN
In one of the immortal lines of Godfather 2, mafia boss Michael Corleone discusses the fate of his brother, who betrayed him, with his enforcer.
“I don’t want anything to happen to him while my mother is alive,” Corleone said.
Message received. The brother was murdered after their mother’s funeral.
Last week it was reported that the Obama administration has delivered a message to the Palestinian Authority. The administration has warned the PA that the US will veto any anti-Israel resolution brought before the UN Security Council before the US presidential elections on November 8.
Message received. Open season on Israel at the Security Council will commence November 9. The Palestinians are planning appropriately.
Israel needs to plan, too. Israel’s most urgent diplomatic mission today is to develop and implement a strategy that will outflank President Barack Obama in his final eight weeks in power.
THE WORLD RUNS OUT OF DOLLARS
Surging rates on dollar Libor contracts are rapidly tightening conditions across large parts of the global economy, incubating stress in the credit markets and ultimately threatening overvalued bourses.
Three-month Libor rates – the benchmark cost of short-term borrowing for the international system – have tripled this year to 0.88% as inflation worries mount.
Fear that the US Federal Reserve may have to raise rates uncomfortably fast is leading to an acute dollar shortage, draining global liquidity.
“The Libor rate is one of few instruments left that still moves freely and is priced by market forces. It is effectively telling us that that the Fed is already two hikes behind the curve,” says Steen Jakobsen from Saxo Bank. “Something more fundamental is at work. The cost of global capital is going up, full stop.”
“This is highly significant and is our number one concern. Our allocation model is now 100% in cash. This is a warning signal for the market and it happens extremely rarely,” he says.
CORRUPTION AND PROSPERITY
What is the single most important determinate as to whether a country is rich or poor? It is not the level of government spending, taxation, regulation or monetary stability — even though those factors are very important. It is the rule of law, whereby the rules are known and fair, equally applied to all, and where corruption is not tolerated.
The end of great countries and empires was most often caused by internal decay, not by foreign enemies — ancient Greece and Rome being prime examples. History’s lesson is:
When the rule of law is lost, even great nations disintegrate.
Today, only those who are willfully ignorant fail to recognize that parts of the Internal Revenue Service and the Justice Department, as well as other government agencies, have not only become partisan but also deeply corrupt.
When evidence is destroyed after having been subpoenaed by appropriate congressional committees and private organizations under the Freedom of Information Act, and no action is taken to punish those responsible, it becomes the very definition of corruption.
There are many other examples, but what is disturbing is the extent to which so many journalists have gone to cover up and defend inexcusable behavior.
WHAT MEMORY IS AND IS NOT
This immortal scene of Maurice Chevalier and Hermione Gingold in the 1958 movie Gigi is so endearingly charming because Chevalier is so good-natured about his misremembrance.
It’s often difficult, however, to be that way regarding our memories.
Understanding what memory is – and is not – can do wonders for our relationships, our self-awareness and our peace of mind.
Sitting at the table at Thanksgiving, a family member might recount a memory of an event from your childhood, talking about what you experienced as if his perception of your sentiments on the subject is a fact.
How does that make you feel? Probably at least a little annoyed. He, after all, did not have your memory. He had his memory.
You were both there in the same place at the same time, but you were having your experience of the event and he was having his. The two experiences could be worlds apart.
We’ve all had those arguments where one of us remembers things one way, and the other remembers it differently. For instance…
THE OTHER SHOES
The Other Shoes to Drop on November 8
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/28/16
When one of the world’s best financial analysts and I find ourselves agreeing with one of the world’s most repulsive SJWs (social justice warriors), you know things are getting über-weird 12 days out from November 8.
Last night (10/27), over two fingers of Ardbeg neat (you don’t insult the best Islay single malt with water or ice), financial guru Michael Markowski and I discussed the bottom line consequences of who wins the White House.
We agreed that hell is coming to breakfast for the stock market no matter who wins. The complete unsustainability of negative or near-zero interest rates is just one example (see Michael’s video on this below).
If Trump wins, his policies of eliminating regulatory hamstrings, raising interest rates instead of taxes, cutting spending, repatriating corporate offshore trillions, etc. will result in a V-shape recovery similar to that of Ronald Reagan’s in the early 80s.
If Hillary wins, her policies of more government regulation and taxes will result in a flatline L-shape anti-recovery similar to that of FDR’s in the 1930s, prolonging the Great Depression. The scariest part of this scenario is that the only way we finally got out the Depression was with World War II.
Hillary, in other words, will use the coming inevitable crash as all Lefties traditionally use crises – as a rationale to expand government power and control over our lives. Trump, on the other hand, will use it to expand economic freedom and opportunity which ends the crisis quickly instead of prolonging it and possibly ends in war.
And now for the fun cover story of today:
WHY DEMOCRATS DO NOT BELIEVE IN DEMOCRACY
President George Bush denounced what he called an “Axis of Evil” in his famed 2002 State of the Union Address little over 4 months after 9/11: Iraq, Iran, North Korea. That it was – but another Axis of Evil had risen in America itself.
The Marxist Left in the Democrat Party had morphed into being unvarnished Fascist – seeking power not for any ideological purpose or rationale, but simply for power itself. What they retained of Marxism was its morality – that the end justifies the means.
Since their end was power for the sake of power, then any means to get it and keep it, any lie, any dirty trick, any hypocrisy, any threat, any violence, any corruption they could get away with, is the moral thing to do. The only thing wrong in their eyes is getting caught – which their Enemedia allies were dedicated to preventing.
Under Barack Obama – a treasonous hate-filled racist president dedicated to weakening America and strengthening her enemies in every way possible – the Democrat-Fascist/Enemedia Axis of Evil has reached an epitome of power.
And just like a dictator in a banana republic or African hellhole – like Maduro in Venezuela, Mugabe in Zimbabwe, or the Castros in Cuba – they will do anything, perpetrate any depravity or dishonesty, to keep it.