LESSONS FROM DOWN UNDER
Mankind seems to be programmed not to remember the reasons for economic success and failure - and these lessons seem to need to be relearned every few years. The normal course of events is for free and prosperous economies (particularly under democracies) to move toward less freedom - more government spending, taxation and regulation - until the burden of government brings growth to a halt or near-halt.
In 1900, Australians enjoyed the highest per-capita income in the world. But then they retreated behind high tariff walls in a misguided attempt to protect manufacturing industries, created a judicial-based wage-determination system as a way to redistribute income in the name of fairness and engaged in excessive economic regulation. All of those measures slowed economic growth and reduced Australia's global per-capita income standing from No. 1 to No. 14.
Will Australians regain their economic footing before they allow themselves to fully re-embrace statism and end up with the disastrous policies of the Obama administration? The jury is out. But, President Obama is perhaps useful to the extent that his policies serve as a bad example for the rest of the world.
AHMADINEJAD’S TARGET AUDIENCE
By Iranian and Hizbullah accounts, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon this week will be a splendid affair. The man who stole his office and then killed his countrymen to protect his crime will be greeted as a conquering hero. Billboards bidding him welcome and Iranian flags will line the roads from the Beirut airport down to the border with Israel.
AHMADINEJAD'S VISIT must be seen within the regional context that it is taking place. Specifically, it must be seen against the backdrop of Lebanese politics. It must also be seen in the context of waning US power and influence in the region. Finally it should be evaluated in terms of Iranian domestic affairs and Ahmadinejad's ongoing struggle with his people who reject his leadership. While Iran's ill-intentions towards Israel remain static, all of the other developments in the region are dynamic.
One aspect of Ahmadinejad's visit is abundantly clear. It is the diplomatic equivalent of a victory lap. Iran's ruler is using his trip as an opportunity to flaunt his position as the colonial overlord of Lebanon.
That means that Iran now believes it is in its interest to expose that Lebanon today is nothing more than an Iranian colony.
A KNIFE FIGHT WITH THE MILITARY
The sudden departure of National Security Adviser James Jones indicates Mr. Obama soon may have as poisonous a relationship with the U.S. military as he has with business.
Mr. Jones was doomed after the Washington Post’s Bob Woodward reported the retired Marine general had described Mr. Axelrod and departed chief of staff Rahm Emanuel as “water bugs” who don’t understand foreign policy and are interested only in its short term effects on domestic politics.
But Mr. Jones’ departure three weeks before the midterm elections suggests a White House in disarray, and his replacement by Tom Donilon portends conflict with the Pentagon.
“We could be headed for one of the greatest civilian-military showdowns in decades,” said liberal commentator Peter Beinart.
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/08/10
The political news continues to be more than Half Full. The most surprising news this week is a poll indicating that Rep. John Dingell – who has held his seat since Christ was a corporal – is trailing his GOP opponent.
Democrats are pursuing a base mobilization strategy to hold down their losses in the midterms. This makes sense, because it’s about the only way to play the hand they’ve dealt themselves.
But it won’t work. Ann Kim of the left of center group Third Way explains why.
But if base mobilization is the only card you have to play, play it with gusto. But President Obama and his sidekick, the buffoon, are playing it oddly. Zero thinks he can get the base to turn out by lecturing it and criticizing it.
Voters are used to being courted, not hectored. It’ll be fascinating to see how this works out.
DARK HEARTS EXPOSED
Last month the Department of Defense took the unusual -- and to me, disturbing -- step of buying up the entire initial press run of a book it doesn’t like, and destroying it.
The book is “Operation Dark Heart,” by retired Army Reserve LtCol. Anthony Shaffer, about an intelligence operation in Afghanistan in the early days of that war.
Mr. Shaffer had submitted his manuscript to the Army for security review, which approved it. But the Defense Intelligence Agency weighed in late with objections.
A second edition is being printed, with the redactions the Pentagon insisted upon. Thanks in large part to the publicity surrounding DoD’s effort at censorship, “Operation Dark Heart” is expected to debut at number 7 on the New York Times bestseller list.
REPUBLICAN RECORDS BACKS SPENDING CUTS
Will the Republicans really reduce spending if they gain control of Congress? The Republicans have promised to cut spending rather than increase taxes. Their first test may come as early as Dec. 1, when the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (better known as President Obama's deficit-reduction commission) is due to report. The betting is that the commission will recommend a ratio of something close to $3 of spending reduction for each $1 of tax increase.
Republicans will be under great pressure from the media to sign on to the tax increases in exchange for the spending cuts. In the early 1980s, President Reagan became party to a similar deal — accepting a small tax increase for a large promised spending cut. The Democrats who controlled Congress at the time delivered the tax increase but not the spending cuts.
Knowing this history and to show that they are serious, the Republicans will need to stand up and say "no" to the commission's recommendations.
RUNWAY ABLE
Tinian Island, Pacific Ocean. It's a small island, less than 40 square miles, a flat green dot in the vastness of Pacific blue. Fly over it and you notice a slash across its north end of uninhabited bush, a long thin line that looks like an overgrown dirt runway. If you didn't know what it was, you wouldn't give it a second glance out your airplane window. 
On the ground, you see the runway isn't dirt but tarmac and crushed limestone, abandoned with weeds sticking out of it. Yet this is arguably the most historical airstrip on earth. This is where World War II was won. This is Runway Able. There may be no better place on the planet to reflect on what is at stake on November 2nd than here.
THE OBSEQUIOUSNESS OF THE WATER BUGS
At his farewell party last Friday (10/1) before leaving the White House to run for mayor of Chicago, Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said to President Barack Obama: “I want to thank you for being the toughest leader any country could ask for in the toughest time any president has ever faced.”
We expect these days a certain amount of excess in the flattery members of his staff bestow upon a president. But if there were a record for sycophancy, Rahm has shattered it.
Obsequiousness and historical ignorance are dangerous combinations in any senior presidential aide. But they are especially harmful when the president has an exalted opinion of himself, but little real world experience.
THE LESSONS OF STUXNET
There's a new cyber-weapon on the block. And it's a doozy. Stuxnet, a malicious software, or malware, program was apparently first discovered in June.
Although it has appeared in India, Pakistan and Indonesia, Iran's industrial complexes - including its nuclear installations - are its main victims.
No other malware program has ever managed to move from cyberspace to the real world. And this is what makes Stuxnet so revolutionary. It is not a tool of industrial espionage. It is a weapon of war.
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/01/10
There’s been too much good news in the Half Full Report of late, so we’ll begin this week’s HFR with bad.
* President Barack Obama drew a monster crowd – police estimated it at more than 26,000 – at a rally on the University of Wisconsin campus in Madison Tuesday. Even embattled Sen. Russ Feingold – who’d been avoiding Zero like the plague – showed up for it.
* Rasmussen indicates Zero’s job approval is rising, and the gap between Republicans and Democrats on his generic ballot is shrinking.
* A Survey USA poll indicated the senate race in Kentucky has fallen into a statistical dead heat. A poll in California showed the Dems widening leads in the gubernatorial and senatorial contests.
* A Time-CNN poll indicates Lisa (it’s my job for life) Murkowski has pulled into a statistical tie with Joe Miller in the senate race in Alaska.