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ARSENIC AND CYANIDE

The danger is greater today than it was in July of 1863 that government “of the people, by the people, for the people” may perish from the earth.

I’ve survived a long battle with cancer to find my country afflicted by twin deadly cancers.  The election of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump spells doom for the constitutional republic for which – during my service in the Marine Corps and Army Special Forces -- I was willing to lay down my life.

Even if he weren’t a liberal Democrat, a con man, a boor, and an ignoramus on public policy, I’d never vote for Trump because he’s the antithesis of everything my parents taught me a good man should be.

Hillary Clinton is even worse.  If they weren’t the presumptive nominees of their parties, neither Hillary nor The Donald could get a security clearance.

In their desperation to stop her, some conservatives refuse to recognize how little difference there is between the political views of Hillary and Trump, and none whatsoever in their (lack of) ethics.  Arsenic is as deadly a poison as cyanide.  I don’t plan to take either.

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AMERICA’S CHAMBERLAIN

obama_chamberlainIt’s not hard to see why the discussion of Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes’ exchanges with the New York TimesThe Aspiring Novelist Who Became Obama’s Foreign Policy Guru –  has received so much attention from the chattering class. A lot of it is all about them, after all, and we all love to talk about ourselves.

By now, we’ve all heard the insults to the D.C. press corps (they’re 27 years old and don’t know anything about anything) and the self-satisfied account about how Rhodes and his colleagues, including Obama himself, deceived America about the Iran deal.

The deception hasn’t stopped, however, nor does it go away because Obama and Rhodes have given us a new account of the Iran deal.

For now we discover that negotiations with Iran started even before Obama was inaugurated, and had nothing to do with events over there. It was Obama’s initiative, and  it’s the key to his foreign policy.

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THE SUMMER OF SHOCKS

Global fund managers have almost no faith in the latest stock market rallies around the world and have begun to fear the worst from Brexit, putting aside near record sums of money in cash as they brace for a ‘summer of shocks.’

Investors have already lost confidence in China’s economic rebound this year and are shunning British equities like the plague, fearing a financial crunch if Britain votes to leave the EU.

Bank of America’s monthly survey of funds shows that 27% now think Brexit is the biggest ‘tail-risk’ for the global economy, overtaking neuralgic concerns about a devaluation by China or a wave of defaults by Chinese companies.

Longstanding fears that central banks are running out of policy ammunition or risk ‘quantitative failure’ have slipped to third place. The new worry is ‘stagflation’ in the US, a toxic mix of slowing growth and rising inflation at the same time.

What is puzzling is that this mood of deep alarm conflicts with clear evidence of accelerating monetary growth worldwide, usually a harbinger of better times ahead.

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IS THE END NEAR?

The end is near — depending on how you define “near” and where you live.

A couple of weeks ago, hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller gave an important talk arguing that the crisis is about to hit and investors should liquidate their equity holdings. He and others who have similar views have been the subject of much debate among economists — more of it about the timing of the next global and U.S. downturn and not so much about whether it will come.

The crisis has already hit many — depending on where you live and what assets you hold — and will eventually spread to billions of others, including a very large segment of the U.S. population.

The fundamental problem is most countries are experiencing little or no growth as a result of excessive government spending (particularly on transfer payments), and destructive regulations and tax policies.

The unwillingness of the politicians (and their voters) to cut back on spending and regulation has led to an explosion of government debt, which is not sustainable at current levels of economic growth. This, in turn, is fueling a demand for more government spending (more free stuff) and thus more debt.

How long do you think this can go on?

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HALF-FULL REPORT 05/13/16

Earlier this week, Jack published “The To The Point Rebel Alliance.” You should certainly read it if you haven’t. It starts with a clip of the Galactic Senate giving Palpatine thunderous applause as he declares himself emperor.

Across the Atlantic, two branches of a very real empire collided a couple of weeks ago. Barack Obama threatened Britain with draconian consequences should it vote to leave the European Union (or as it’s more fondly known, the EUSR). Boris Johnson’s rejoinder was an instant classic, demonstrating that he, not David Cameron, is Margaret Thatcher’s true heir.

Continuing to confound expectations of his certain doom, this week Donald Trump pulled ahead of or even with Hillary Clinton in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac has Trump 4 points ahead (43-39) in life-and-death Ohio, and just 1 point down (43-42) in the other two.

Hillary's mistakes just keep piling up, as virtually everything she does seems to reinforce the Trump brand. Indeed the campaign is so tone-deaf that everyone’s earlier worries about Trump being a ringer for Hillary increasingly look backward: if anything, it’s Hillary who’s working to elect Trump.

All this, plus Admiral Akbar, America’s own Emperor Palpatine, and the most encouraging Jimmy Kimmel segment you’ve ever seen, all in this week’s Half Full Report.

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THE TRUMP TAX RETURN TIME BOMB

TrumpsTaxesWhen Donald Trump sits down with Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell today (5/12), there is a pressing issue that they should put before their party’s presumptive presidential nominee.

He told the Associated Press on Tuesday (5/10) that he has no plans to release his tax returns before the November election. “There’s nothing to learn from them,” he said. Previously, he had claimed he would love to release the returns as soon as an IRS audit is completed. 

This is Trump’s bait-and switch-style at its most dangerous. Some Trump delegates and their alternates should write him an open letter demanding his unredacted tax returns. If he declines, they should declare they will abstain on the first ballot of the convention, driving him below the number needed to nominate.

No political party has ever had quite such a political land mine on the verge of becoming its presidential nominee. If delegates are anxious about pressuring Trump, they should note that no delegate faces serious consequences for abstaining on the first ballot.

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NEVERNEVERTRUMP

Now that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee, Republicans should unite behind him, say, among others, (Republican National Chairman) Reince Priebus and (over the hill blowhard) Newt Gingrich.

Fat chance of that.  I wonder who (besides themselves) they think they’re kidding?

A conservative columnist I admire, former Army colonel Kurt Schlichter, despises Trump almost as much as I do, but plans to vote for him, because he thinks Hillary would be worse.  Hillary is a fascist, Kurt says.  Trump is more of a clown.

Rick Wilson, one of the few GOP consultants I think is worth a hoot, said he may vote for Hillary because he thinks Trump would be worse.

I don’t see how a principled conservative could vote for either.  To choose between Trump and Hillary is like taking sides in the Iran-Iraq war.  America wins only if both lose.

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THE LESSONS OF TRUMP

We all got it wrong.

Everybody who wrote Donald Trump off as a political charlatan destined to flame out; everybody who called Trump a clown who would return to his reality show and leave us all alone; everybody who suggested that this circus couldn't -- couldn't! -- continue...we were all wrong.

Now it's time to take away a few lessons.  Here are five.

First, failure to utilize ideological purity tests leads to the rise of leftist candidates within your own party.

Second, ignoring social issues means that the only way to appeal to disgruntled blue-collar voters is by moving left on economics.

Third, moral narrative is far more important than policy knowledge.

Fourth, when you believe there are no good guys, character doesn't matter.

Fifth, lack of institutional trust leads to the rise of protofascists, not to a general allegiance to liberty.

Let’s discuss each.

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TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY IS EITHER NOT SERIOUS OR NON-EXISTENT

Well, at least he wants to call "radical Islam" by its name. I’ll give him that. But then there’s that silly, misleading bit about how we Americans love it when former enemies become friends.

Most of the time this is said with regards to Germany and Japan, our leading enemies in the Second World War that are now close allies. If you put it that way it’s just a happy story, and it fits with Trump’s theme of making ours the happiest times … ever.

But it so drastically oversimplifies the subject that it’s worrisome, because he suggests that our current unpleasantness with Russia and China can be transformed if we sit down and make a deal. You know, the sort he claims he’s so fabulous at making.

The enemies-to-friends/allies story about Germany and Japan came about only after we destroyed them in a world war, not because FDR and Truman struck wonderful deals with them.

Enmity is like that. Trump’s dealmaking theory of making friends out of enemies has, in fact, just been tested by Barack Obama, and it hasn’t worked out very well.

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