GLOBAL WARMING COMES TO AMERICA
Soon children will have forgotten what snow looks like... See that white stuff floating down past the orange trees and landing on your alligators and manatees, Florida? That's global warming, that is. See that frozen white thing by the harbor that used to look like a green woman with a spiky headdress, New York? That's global warming, that is. How do we know this? Because Bryan Walsh of Time magazine says so. And, of course, so does the Guardian say so.... Everything's global warming, America. Didn't you get the message yet from your President Zero (or is that President Zero Degrees now, TTPers?) and John Kerry and Al Gore and James Hansen, the whole GloWarm Gang? Everything! That's why, if ever any of you want to see a day of sunshine again in your miserable, too-selfish-to-change-your-lifestyle carbon-addicted lives, here are a few things you absolutely are going to have to do:
WHY OBAMA COULD TURN 2014 INTO 1914
The deadliest folly in history began 100 years ago this August. The 20th Century dawned with more hope and promise than any before it. Living standards were rising rapidly. During it, poverty, disease and war could be eradicated, many intellectuals believed. Until August, 1914. More than 9 million soldiers and 16 million civilians died during World War I -- an appalling butcher's bill for a war no one wanted. Our world is very different. Surely national leaders now wouldn't "sleepwalk into war" as Kaiser Wilhelm, Czar Nicholas, et. al. did back then? A growing number of military scholars and historians aren't sure - such as Sir Max Hastings, who is hearing "echoes of 1914." The world is teeming with those echoes, from the Middle East to China - and they are reverberating loudly due to the incompetence and fecklessness of Barack Hussein Obama.
THE CRISIS IS COMING, BUT WHO KNOWS WHEN?
The struggle between the productive and the destructive never ends. The productive are those who add more value and wealth than they consume, and the destructive are those who destroy more value and wealth than they create. Will 2014 be a year of production or destruction? Those private individuals, firms or institutions such as the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that make economic forecasts for the United States or the global economy are actually making judgments about the outcomes of the struggles between the productive and the destructive. The good news is that most people will work hard and honestly to create more wealth for their families in 2014 -- whether they are creating a new business or product, or just doing a really good job. The bad news is that in the United States, individuals and businesses now face $54 billion more in new federal taxes and a torrent of new regulations and rules that, for the most part, make life harder.
HALF-FULL REPORT 01/03/14
OK - welcome to 2014! What's in store for the world this year? Beats me. How should I know? The future hasn't happened yet. We can be supremely confident that the sun will without exception continue to rise in the east (although I did see the sun set in the east and rise in the west one day - it's a story), that there will be a full moon this coming January 16, and that ostriches will not spontaneously turn into elephants on the Serengeti Plains. The laws of physics and nature will continue to hold. Beyond that, regarding human activity predictions have to be heavily larded with caveats, because there's no way of telling when black swans will appear out of the ether to bite us in the glutes, or what random grain of sand will collapse a country's sand pile. So let's talk of possibilities and opportunities. For the fact is that there's no such thing as the future. Instead, there is a very large number of possible futures - with some being much more likely than others. What might they be? Let's hop around the world a bit first before focusing on the US.
INCOME INEQUALITY IGNORANCE AND THE GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Green Bay Packers paid quarterback Aaron Rodgers $12 million last year. That was 750 percent more than the average salary for all 72 players on the active roster, practice squad and injured reserve ($1.6 million); 1,850 percent more than the median salary ($647,840), and 117.7 times (11,770 percent) more than the lowest paid Packer ($102,000). Rodgers is worth every penny, most Packer fans think. I'm quite sure Mae, the TTP Forum's #1 Packer fan does. Green Bay was trailing the Chicago Bears, 28-27, with just 46 seconds left in the game on Sunday (12/29) when Rodgers, facing an all-out blitz on fourth and 8, threw a 48-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb, propelling the Packers into the playoffs. "You have to marvel at the fact that he was going to his left and made that kind of throw," said Bears coach Marc Trestmann. Packer players don't begrudge Aaron Rodgers his much higher salary, because they know his pay is based on extraordinary performance, which puts money in their pockets. Because they made the playoffs, each Packer will be paid about $22,000 more -- equivalent to a 21 percent bonus for the lowest paid players. If Democrats, most especially their leader Mr. Zero, had as little concern about "income inequality" as do football players, coaches and fans, we'd be a lot better off.
2014: HISTORY RETURNS IN TOOTH AND CLAW
We enter the year of the all-conquering US dollar. As the global security system unravels - with echoes of 1914 - the premium on the world's safe-haven currency must rise. As the Fed turns off the spigot of dollar liquidity, it will starve the world's dysfunctional economy of $1 trillion a year of stimulus. This will occur through the quantity of money effect, hitting in a series of hammer blows, regardless of whether interest rates remain at zero. It is hard to imagine a strategic and economic setting more conducive to a blistering dollar rally, a process that will pick up speed as yields on 10-year US Treasuries break through 3% (as of today, 01/02, it is at 2.992). We’re going to enter a brave new world in 2014. The democracies are on the back foot. It is no longer Francis Fukuyama's "End of History," but history returning in tooth and claw. So with that caveat let me try to make sense of global economic forces. The annual rite of new year predictions is never easy. It is nigh impossible in the midst of a global regime change with so many political bombs primed to go off at any moment. But here we go.
OBAMA HAS KILLED AMERICA’S FREEDOM AGENDA IN THE WORLD
For all of my life, America has stood for freedom in the world. Until now. Ever since Obama’s rise to power, America’s “Freedom Agenda” – the promotion of and support for expanding freedom and democracy – has been squelched. Supporting, for example, the Green Revolution in Iran in 2009, and the protesters in Ukraine today would have been no-brainers if the Obama administration had the slightest inclination to cultivate US allies and the cause of freedom more generally. Both the Iranian democracy activists then and the Ukrainian protesters today demonstrated through their actions that they do not seek the mere overthrow of unrepresentative, repressive governments. They seek freedom, and are willing to work for it. The situation in Iraq, and in Ukraine – as well as in Iran, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan and beyond – makes clear that Obama has killed America’s freedom agenda. And that isn’t all. Obama doesn’t simply neglect democratic forces in favor of authoritarian regimes. In country after country, under his leadership the US sides with anti-American forces of authoritarianism against pro-American forces. Why?
THE REVOLUTION OF 2014
This could be what I call a "FS Year" - like Sinatra sings in It Was A Very Good Year, 2014 could "pour sweet and clear" for freedom in America, if only we take advantage of the opportunity history is handing us. Pick your metaphor or adage. The setup for a political "perfect storm," an epic "correlation of forces," an ideal example of "the greater the danger, the greater the opportunity" is here before us. We have a chance at victory on not just one, but on both of our country's most important battlefields. The stakes couldn't be higher. Which means if we blow it this year, surmounting 2016 will be as hard as climbing Everest without oxygen.
THE BENGHAZI BACKFIRE
A policeman walking his beat late one night spotted a drunk on his hands and knees in front of a lamppost, peering intently at the ground. "I'm looking for my car keys," explained the drunk after the cop asked him what he was doing. After helping the drunk search for a few fruitless minutes, the cop asked: "Are you sure this is where you dropped them?" "No, I lost them in the park across the street," the drunk replied. "So why are you looking for them here?" asked the exasperated cop. "Because the light is so much better," the drunk replied. The joke illustrates the "streetlight effect" -- bias in scientific studies which occurs when researchers look where it's easiest rather than where answers are most likely to be found. I was reminded of it by a lengthy article in the New York Times on Sunday (12/29). That's because while it's hard to find the truth when you look in the wrong places, it's harder still when you are only pretending to look.
MY FANTASY RESOLUTIONS
New Year's resolutions are difficult to keep. That is why I find it easier to make them for others, rather than myself, as part of my other-people improvement program. The country would not be on the road to ruin if those in government would follow the New Year's resolutions I propose for them, starting with President Obama (as part of my fantasy world). Resolution #1: The President should start telling the truth. As is well known, the president has difficulty telling the truth, which, as most children learn at an early age, can lead to many troubles. He must have a review committee to verify the truth of his statements and speeches before he makes them. This would also have the side benefit of causing the president to say far less. Resolution #2:...