THE END GAME FOR JAPAN?
Lake Como, Italy. Japan is heading for a full-blown solvency crisis as the country runs out of local investors and may ultimately be forced to inflate away its debt in a desperate end-game, one of the world’s most influential economists has warned.
Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said zero interest rates have disguised the underlying danger posed by Japan’s public debt, likely to reach 250% of GDP this year and spiraling upwards on an unsustainable trajectory.
Speaking Monday (4/11) at the Ambrosetti Forum of world policy-makers on Lake Como, he said, “To our surprise, Japanese retirees have been willing to hold government debt at zero rates, but the marginal investor will soon not be a Japanese retiree.”
“If and when US hedge funds become the marginal Japanese debt, they are going to ask for a substantial spread,” he told me. Analysts say this would transform the country’s debt dynamics and kill the illusion of solvency, possibly in a sudden, non-linear fashion.
Prof. Blanchard did not elaborate on the implications of Japan’s woes for the global financial system, but they would surely be dramatic. Japan is still the world’s third largest economy by far. It is also the global laboratory for an ageing crisis that the rest of us will face to varying degrees.
Join the forum discussion on this postWE NEED MORE FINANCIAL CONFIDENTIALITY, NOT LESS
The “Panama Papers” uproar has caused the predictable calls for more financial transparency. Even if you are a person of modest means, do you want the government to know everything about your spending habits? Folks in government will always assure the people that any personal information — income, tax and health records — will be kept totally secret. But that is a lie.
Over the last couple of years, the innermost secrets of the U.S. government, involving national defense, personnel and IRS records have all been hacked or stolen. Far too often, those in government use sensitive information for their own purposes or for general citizen abuse and even blackmail.
To quote the British writer and barrister, Stanley Brodie, “The idea that everyone’s tax and financial affairs, assets and wealth should be open to inspection by the world at large only has to be stated for its absurdity to be seen.”
The “Panama Papers” revelations have caused many to attack “shell” companies. Most all companies begin as “shell companies,” meaning they have few real assets or operations. Some become giant corporations, some become proper vehicles for investment and productive uses, and a few are used for illegal purposes.
Cars, homes, boats, planes, businesses and government agencies can be used for proper and legal activities or, in the hands of bad people, can be used for criminal purposes. If we banned everything that is used for destructive purposes, we would all be lying naked in a cave without sticks or stones.
The fact is the world cannot function without a high degree of confidentiality, including financial confidentiality.
WHY WE SHOULD AND SHOULD NOT CARE ABOUT THE PANAMA PAPERS
I’ve been trying, I really have, to give a flying flatulence about Paul Burrell, former butler to the late Princess Diana, having some shares in an offshore trust based in the British Virgin Islands called Black Dragon.
But I’m afraid I find myself caring as much as I do about the Lithuanian shoe polish industry, maybe. No, I exaggerate. Not that much.
What we should care about very much though, I think, is the way that this “Panama Papers” story is being a manipulated to a particular end by politicians and the left-leaning media.
Look at Sen. Bernie Sanders – or try to without laughing, for after all his initials are BS. The leftie media is now proclaiming that the Panama Papers are his keys to the White House.
For it plays perfectly to that notion Socialists like Sanders are obsessed with these days: that there’s a corrupt, uncontrollable elite who can only brought to account by a good old fashioned dose of the kind of hard-left politics which worked so well for Cuba, East Germany, and the USSR.
MENTAL FITNESS EVALUATION
This test is to ascertain the level of your mental fitness. Not how smart you are, but how clearly you think.
There are 4 test questions. Getting them all correct means you have superb mental clarity – as superb as Donald Trump pretends he has.
If you get none of them correct, you have no mental clarity at all, which is what Donald Trump actually has. You should consider an MRI scan of your brain to see what’s not functioning.
So here we go. Give each question effortful thought before answering. Try to get at least one of them right.
1. Giraffe Test
How do you put a giraffe into a refrigerator?
HALF-FULL REPORT 04/08/16
Of course you know that Wisconsinites are affectionately called “Cheeseheads” because they make the best cheese in America. Thus NBC News chronicled Ted Cruz’s “Top 5 Cheese-Related Moments” while campaigning.
How can you not love a guy who can think on his feet this fast with a sense of humor this good?
Monday, April 4. As Ted Cruz was walking out the door at Glorioso's Italian Market in Milwaukee, he was asked: "Should we arm the cheese curds?"
He responded: "Now that's funny. Alright you convinced me, yes, we need to arm the cheese curds, and you know if we send the cheese curds into ISIS, it'll fatten 'em up and they'll go down immediately ... Maybe if they get enough cheese curds they'll just decide they don't need this whole jihad thing, and they should just happily eat cheese curds and live in peace with their fellow man."
No wonder he won Wisconsin’s primary by a landslide.
We have news about the Kurds – we were talking about them, weren’t we? – Kim Kardashian believe it or not, Israel, the Chicoms, the worst scumbag in Congress getting his, and the upcoming contested convention. Not the one you’re thinking of – the other one.
We close with something that will make you cry with tears of… well, you decide.
HILLARY, GET READY, HERE WE COME!
[This is the video, followed by the transcript of Ted Cruz’s victory speech last night in Wisconsin]
God bless the Great State of Wisconsin. What an incredible victory tonight. And thank you to your tremendous governor, Governor Scott Walker, for his principled, passionate leadership.
Tonight is a turning point. It is a rallying cry. It is a call from the hard-working men and women of Wisconsin to the people of America: we have a choice. A real choice.
Tonight was a bad night for Hillary Clinton. It was a bad night in the Democrat primary, and it was an even worse night for her in the Republican primary.
AMERICA’S ECONOMIC PROBLEM IS REGULATION, NOT TRADE
Even when Donald Trump seems to get something right, he’s mostly wrong. At least when it comes to economics.
Many Americans are suffering financially. Yet he hates trade, even though Americans have grown rich as a trading nation. And he says virtually nothing about regulation, which has done so much to harm U.S. competitiveness.
No surprise, the Obama administration is busy writing new rules to turn America into its vision of a good society, irrespective of the impact on liberty or prosperity. Last year Uncle Sam spent $62 billion to run the rest of our lives – at a cost to us of almost $2 trillion.
Actually, that $2 trillion is just the “tip of the costberg” we pay for this regulatory tyranny in terms of jobs, economic growth, income inequality and so much more. Here are the stats and studies that show how and why.
ARE THE PANAMA PAPERS UNLEASHING A WITCH HUNT?
The secret world of offshore banks and money-laundering has been under the microscope ever since the financial crisis. Now it is the turn of lawyers, registrars, and the hidden network of facilitators.
The treasure trove of 11.5 million documents leaked – or more precisely stolen - from the Panama law firm Mossack Fonseca lifts the lid on the extraordinary practices of the global elites, and on the alleged services of off-shore legal cabinets for terrorist organizations, drug cartels, sanctions busting, and front companies of all kinds.
The files on 213,000 firms first slipped to the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung and then shared with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) is the biggest data leak in history. It will have long-lasting ramifications.
The avalanche of allegations has barely begun. The red-hot dossier on US citizens has not even been released. Yet the scandal has already triggered a string of criminal investigations around the world, kicking off in Australia and New Zealand within hours.
The Panama firm has responded: “We believe there's an international campaign against privacy. Privacy is a sacred human right that is being eroded more and more in the modern world. Each person has the right to privacy, whether they are a king or a beggar.” Mossack Fonseca has a point.
THE CRUELTY OF GROUP SLANDER
Endless cruelties have been and continue to be committed on the basis of group slander.
The communists and socialists imprisoned and slaughtered many of their merchant and property-owning citizens on the basis of a gross slander, not to mention what the Nazis did to the Jews. In America, blacks, gays, many ethnic groups and women were first stereotyped, then slandered, and then discriminated against.
But the fashion of which groups of individuals can be slandered has changed to such people as Wall Street bankers; pharmaceutical, coal and oil company executives; conservative scholars; those who question the global warming establishment; and white males, among others.
The general rule that one is innocent until proven guilty goes back at least to ancient Roman law: Ei incumbit probatio qui dicit, non qui negat — “Burden of proof lies on him who asserts, not on him who denies.”
Over the centuries, not only individuals, but whole classes of people, have been denied this basic human right. The oppressors normally begin by slandering a group, and then use the slander to discriminate and ultimately persecute — and, unfortunately, this persists even in America. Let’s take Bernie Sanders as a prime example.
HOW BIG IS YOUR FEAR?
What kind of things are you afraid of? Fear is a natural and necessary emotion. It tells you that there is danger, or potential danger, and that you should become more vigilant, narrowing your focus to search for, isolate, and avoid or escape the danger. Sometimes what we fear is not dangerous at all. We can feel fear at expanding opportunities, or new situations, or exciting experiences.
Sometimes switching the word "excitement" for the word "fear" can be a clarifying and liberating experience. Try switching the two the next time you feel afraid of something good and expansive. You might just discover some excitement there that you had overlooked. Being afraid of things from time to time is part of life. It is normal, healthy, and can sometimes offer you the greatest opportunities to grow in resilience, success, and wisdom. It’s being afraid all of the time about something that’s not so good.