IS A DOLLAR SURGE ON THE WAY?
The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve are both poised to start draining liquidity from the financial system, threatening a bout of dollar scarcity and a potential shake-up of currency markets over coming months.
The twin-shift in policy is likely to tighten the availability of credit and send a strong impulse through Wall Street and global bourses, though whether it will be powerful enough to dampen frothy asset prices in the current exuberant mood is an open question.
“As we approach the fourth quarter, dollar scarcity could return as a theme. The upcoming tightening of US liquidity is not fully reflected in market pricing,” says Christin Tuxen and Jens Naervig Pedersen from Danske Bank.
What makes the US Treasury actions doubly-potent this time is that the Fed is about to pull the trigger on ‘quantitative tightening’ (QT) at exactly the same time, taking the first steps to wind down its $4.4 trillion balance sheet after almost a decade of ultra-stimulus.
"This will not be a walk in the park," says Danske Bank.
DO NOT BET AGAINST TRUMP OR THE DOLLAR
Donald Trump's appetite is whetted. He knows that American companies have stashed trillions of dollars overseas in what amounts to the greatest cash reserve in the world.
Apple has $257bn parked abroad beyond the reach of the Internal Revenue Service. Alphabet (Google) has $126bn, Microsoft $84bn, Cisco $68bn, and Oracle $59bn. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that total retained earnings outside the country have mushroomed to $4 trillion.
The President is determined to lay his hands on this money, or at least to divert it back into the US economy. The latest briefings from Washington suggests that the White House is preparing 'mandatory' action as part of his tax reform, unlike the previous voluntary attempts to lure back money through tax holidays.
If Mr. Trump succeeds, these repatriated capital flows will have a volcanic impact on the US dollar, Wall Street, and the global financial system, with big winners and big losers.
TRUMP WANTS TO SAVE AMERICAN BUSINESS – DOES CONGRESS?
How much should corporations pay in taxes? The table shows average corporate tax rates by country. You will notice that the United States has by far the highest tax rate.
The U.S. corporate income tax rate is comprised of a federal rate of 35 percent and an average of 5 percent for the states, giving an average 40 percent rate.
The corporate tax has long been recognized by economists as one of the worst taxes. Despite all of the talk about “greedy corporations,” corporations are merely a way of doing business.
The corporation does not “pay” the tax, only individuals pay taxes — so the corporate tax is passed along to consumers in terms of higher prices, to the stockholders in terms of lower dividends and capital gains, and to the workers in terms of lower wages.
President Trump has presented several very sound principles for tax reform. Yet, without the details being presented, the tax reform effort is already being attacked by the Democrat leadership. Reasonable people can differ about how much to reduce the corporate tax rate, but to claim that any corporate tax rate cut is a giveaway to the rich is merely an appeal to ignorance.
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED
HALF-FULL REPORT 09/01/17
Due to Hurricane Harvey, this has been a terrible week for millions of people in Texas, Louisiana and a growing number of other states. Before we kick off today’s report, let’s pause for a minute and remember them in prayer. Indeed, we should be grateful that we have a President who today declared a National Day of Prayer for Harvey victims this Sunday. I hope you will participate, then and now.
In our “news you never thought you’d hear” category, though in typical leftist “never let a crisis go to waste” fashion, Democrat groups are attacking the Red Cross today.
Count Michelle Tremillo our HFR Villain of the Week.
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Hurricane Harvey has been especially vexing to the Enemedia and to Democrats (but I repeat myself) because the Federal response has been so effective. Indeed, most Americans give FEMA high marks, up from just 29% in 2008, three years after Katrina.
So what’s a leftist to do? Attack the First Lady’s shoes.
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While the media was reduced to this level of pouting, others on the left announced that Houston was being punished for its sins. As the Wall Street Journal put it...
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One last thing before we get to Labor Day. Two other holidays are worthy of note this week, both sufficient to make leftist heads pop (doesn’t everything now?)): VJ Day and Columbus, er, “Indiginous Peoples” Day.
Enjoy your weekend, America. You’ve earned it.
In the Meantime, Here we go with this week's HFR! 🙂
SHERIFF JOE AND THE RINO MELTDOWN
What on earth has happened to the moral and political sensibilities of Paul Ryan, John McCain, Jeff Flake, Jeb Bush, etc.? All of those RINOs who are attacking President Trump for pardoning Joe Arpaio are simpering, whining traitors to the party they allegedly represent.
They should declare themselves Democrats and be done with the masquerade.
Perhaps they should remind themselves of all the criminals and thugs that President Obama pardoned, or that President Clinton pardoned.
If there was ever anyone who deserved a pardon, along with Scooter Libby, it is Joe Arapio. This was a no-brainer! The man has enforced both federal and state laws for his entire career.
Arpaio was found in contempt of court after a Clinton-appointed judge, Susan Bolton, ordered him to stop enforcing the law, detaining people he suspected (or knew) to be illegal immigrants. It was the judge who broke the law, not Sheriff Joe, as so many of our activist judges have over the last decade. They do not want laws that protect our borders enforced. Such judges are traitors to the nation as well.
ABROGATING THE IRAN DEAL
Although candidate Donald Trump repeatedly criticized Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear agreement, his administration has twice decided to remain in the deal. It so certified to Congress, most recently in July, as required by law.
Before the second certification, Trump asked repeatedly for alternatives to acquiescing yet again in a policy he clearly abhorred. But no such options were forthcoming, despite “a sharp series of exchanges” between the president and his advisers, as the New York Times and similar press reports characterized it.
Many outside the administration wondered how this was possible: Was Trump in control, or were his advisors?
Defining a compelling rationale to exit Obama’s failed nuclear deal and elaborating a game plan to do so are quite easy. In fact, Steve Bannon asked me in late July to draw up just such a game plan for the president — the option he didn’t have — which I did.
Here it is below. It is only five pages long, but like instant coffee, it can be readily expanded to a comprehensive, hundred-page playbook if the administration were to decide to leave the Iran agreement.
There is no need to wait for the next certification deadline in October. Trump can and should free America from this execrable deal at the earliest opportunity.
I offer the Iran nonpaper now as a public service, since staff changes at the White House have made presenting it to President Trump impossible. Although he was once kind enough to tell me “come in and see me any time,” those days are now over.
If the president is never to see this option, so be it. But let it never be said that the option didn’t exist.
WINNING IN AFGHANISTAN REQUIRES REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN
You shouldn’t be surprised that Generals McMaster, Mattis, and Kelly convinced President Trump to send more American troops into Afghanistan. It’s what they know, after all, recalling the old gag: if you’ve got a hammer, you look for nails to hit.
As Angelo Codevilla has rightly asked: How will we know when we have won? Are a few thousand more men and women sufficient for that task? Notice that you can’t answer the questions by simply looking at the Afghan battlefield. It’s bigger than that.
The Taliban are vigorously supported by Iran, yet our Afghan strategy does not discuss it. I don’t believe it’s possible for us to dominate Afghan fighting without defeating the Iranians. We must put an end to Iranian training and arming of Taliban terrorists. This can’t be done without cutting off the Taliban killers from the Islamic Republic.
Generals McMaster, Kelly, and Mattis know this. But like every U.S. administration since 1979, they are unwilling to design a strategy for regime change in Tehran.
THE STATE CHURCH OF THE LEFT
"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion..."
The First Amendment assumes that the proper sphere of government is policies, not values. And so it protects the right of political participation and prohibits a state church that would define values.
The government had the right to decide to go to war with France. It did not have a right to decide what you should believe. Politics extended into the realm of policies, not beliefs.
But as religious belief declined, politics replaced it as the repository of moral and ethical values. This transformation began on the Left. The Left was the least religious in the traditional sense. And the most likely to build up an ideology of secular values with which to displace traditional religious values.
The last century witnessed an extensive effort to scrub religious values out of government. But this effort was matched by an equally comprehensive project to replace them with the Left’s own values. Unlike the wall between church and state, there were few legal safeguards against writing values into legislation if they were irreligious ones. The church was deemed to be the true threat. Not the state.
But the end result looks very much like an establishment of religion. Even in the church sense.
WARMIST LIES ABOUT HARVEY
All week some of the very worst people in climate activism have been trying to make political mileage out of Hurricane Harvey.
What all these blowhard charlatans have in common is that they are all talking drivel. They are, as the Trump EPA rightly says, attempting “to politicize an ongoing tragedy.”
For climate alarmists every major weather event – especially ones that cause millions of dollars of damage to property and claim human lives – is never really a disaster or even a crisis but a heaven-sent opportunity to promote their alarmist narrative.
This is what Al Gore has just done in his box office flop An Inconvenient Sequel. He has collected lots of dramatic footage of floods, hurricanes, typhoons and so on and tried to conflate all this photogenic weather disaster porn with man-made climate change.
Meanwhile, here’s a reality check courtesy of actual weather data recorded by proper scientists from the days when scientists did actual science. Harvey is a natural meteorological event which has nothing whatsoever to do with man-made climate change.