Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
RUSSIA IS DECAYING FASTER THAN THE SOVIET UNION
It took two years for crumbling oil prices to bring the Soviet Union to its knees in the mid-1980s, and another two years of stagnation to break the Bolshevik empire altogether. Russian ex-premier Yegor Gaidar famously dated the moment to September 1985, when Saudi Arabia stopped trying to defend the crude market, cranking up output instead. "The collapse of the USSR should serve as a lesson to those who construct policy based on the assumption that oil prices will remain perpetually high. A seemingly stable superpower disintegrated in only a few short years," he wrote in 2007. Lest we engage in false historicism, it is worth remembering just how strong the USSR still seemed. It knew how to make things. It had an industrial core, with formidable scientists and engineers. Vladimir Putin's Russia is a weaker animal in key respects, a remarkable indictment of his 15-year reign. He presides over a rentier economy, addicted to oil, gas and metals, a textbook case of the Dutch Disease. "Russia is already in a perfect storm," says Lubomir Mitov, Moscow chief for the Institute of International Finance. "Russia is fundamentally crippled. They have outsourced their brains and lost their technology. It looked as if Russia was strong during the oil boom but it was an illusion and now they are in an even worse position than the Soviet Union," he says.
ON THE ROAD TO MANDALAY

CHEAPER OIL IS GOOD NEWS FOR ALL
So ingrained is the bad-news bias of the intelligentsia that the plummeting price of oil has mostly been discussed in terms of its negative effect on the budgets of oil producers, both countries and companies. We are allowed to rejoice only to the extent that we think it is a good thing that the Venezuelan, Russian and Iranian regimes are most at risk, which they are, and which is indeed good news. Yet by far the greater benefit of the oil price fall comes from the impact on consumers. The price of Brent crude oil in Europe has fallen from about $115 a barrel in June to about $86 today (10/22), while crude in the US is at $82. That will make a tank of gas cheaper (though not by as much as it should, because of taxes) but it will also make everything from chairs to chips to chiropractic cheaper too, because the cost of energy is incorporated into the cost of every good and service we buy. The impact of this cost deflation will dwarf any effect of, say, a fall in the price of Exxon shares in your pension plan.
TED’S TOP TEN FOR 2015
By all signs, Americans are preparing to send Washington a clear message in the 2014 elections. The question is, will Washington listen? Republicans - poised to take control of Congress - should set our sights on three big goals to make Americans feel confident in their futures once again: jumpstart the economy, safeguard constitutional liberties, and strengthen our national security. Here are ten critical priorities for the 2015 Congress: First, embrace a big pro-jobs, growth agenda. For six years, the Obama economy has been trapped in stagnation, hurting millions. A Republican Congress should immediately help Americans get more jobs by embracing America's energy renaissance. This means passing legislation to make it easier to build energy infrastructure, such as the Keystone pipeline. But, we need an energy policy that's bigger than Keystone. An effective energy plan would also protect innovative energy technology, such as hydraulic fracturing, from being handcuffed by the federal government. We can also open up land for exploration and ensure that American companies can export liquefied natural gas around the world. And, lastly, stop the EPA from implementing rules that will destroy coal jobs and drive up our electricity bills. Second,
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/17/14
Lots of uplifting news this week, but first a trio of questions. Are you a big fan of Eric Holder? No? Well, how would you like an Eric Holder on steroids? No again? Lastly, why is Sarah Palin answering Yes! to these questions instead? Because that's precisely what she is doing in Louisiana. Zero intends to nominate Tom Perez, a racist fascist far worse than Holder for AG, should the Pubs fail to win the Senate. And that's just for starters. Harry Reid running the Senate for the next two years will allow Zero to run completely amok. Yet Sarah, rather than telling the Louisiana Spoiler - Rob Maness - to stand up like a man for his country and bow out, has doubled down on her support for him. This is ludicrously mistaken and here's why.... Elsewhere, things are looking pretty good. This week has seen an amazing number of October Surprises - all of which have screwed Zero and the Dems. Bad Karma has finally caught up with them. *In Texas, hero-to-baby-killers Wendy Davis drove her gubernatorial campaign straight off a cliff with her wheelchair attack ad on Greg Abbott. After a deluge of disgust, she doubled-down with her ridicule. Abbott was already ahead by 14 points before Wendy's hara-kiri ads. Wendy gives the term "politics of personal destruction" a new meaning. Here are more examples... Yet all of that is merely the tip of the Bad News Iceberg for the Dems this week. Beneath that tip is...
HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM EBOLA
Americans are living in Panic City over Ebola thanks to the now-lethal incompetence of Obola Obama. He has allowed his fascist political ideology to become homicidally criminal. He refuses to close our southern border from illegal invasion causing epidemics and to bar entry to anyone from Ebola-stricken countries as that would be the failure of his Amnesty goal of millions of new Democrat voters. Hundreds of children in 46 states have been infected with Enterovirus D-68, with seven deaths reported by the CDC as of 10/15. As Jack Kelly notes today (10/16): "There are more than 100 enteroviruses, ranging from the common cold to polio. EV D-68 has been very rare here. (But) EV D-68 is common in Central America, from whence came the flood of illegal immigrant children. The outbreak was first reported in communities to which they were sent. CDC refuses to connect the dots. Why won't it?" Now add the Ebola Panic to this. Ebola is being called Obama's Katrina for good reason. The frightening incompetence of Obama's CDC should terrify anyone actually sentient regarding Obamacare's government seizure of America's entire health care system. Let's take a break from Ebola politics and talk about how to actually protect yourself from it - from Ebola specifically and from any other viral contagion.
COULD THE SICKEST MAN OF EUROPE BE GERMANY?
France may look like the sick of man of Europe, but Germany's woes run deeper, rooted in mercantilist dogma, the glorification of saving for its own sake, and the corrosive psychology of ageing. "Germany considers itself the model for the world, but pride comes before the fall," says Olaf Gersemann, Die Welt's economics chief, in a new book, The Germany Bubble: the Last Hurrah of a Great Economic Nation. (Released last month in a German edition, hopefully an English edition will soon follow.) Mr. Gersemann says the Second Wirtschaftswunder - or economic miracle - from 2005 onwards has "gone to Germany's head". The country has mistaken a confluence of exceptional events for permanent ascendancy. It cannot continue to live off exports of capital goods to China and the BRICS as they hit the buffers, or by stealing a march on southern Europe through wage compression, a zero-sum game. Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), makes a parallel critique in his new book, Die Deutschland Illusion, no translation needed. It is the self-deception of a country "resting on its laurels," prisoner of the "household fallacy" that economies are like family budgets, and falsely reassured by the misplaced flattery of foreigners who rarely look under the bonnet at the German engine below.
HOW BITCOIN TECHNOLOGY COULD CREATE A FAR FREER WORLD
Amid the current maelstrom of war, disease and politics, you might have not been paying much attention to bitcoin, the electronic form of money favored by radical libertarians and drug dealers. Yet it is possible that when the history of these days comes to be written, bitcoin's story will loom large. Unnoticed except by the tech-obsessed, the technology behind bitcoin may be slowly giving birth to a brave new world, with eventual implications well beyond money. So argues Bitcoin: The Future of Money?, a new book by Dominic Frisby, a columnist for MoneyWeek magazine published in Britain. Frisby makes the case that it is just possible that bitcoin and its rivals - known as altcoins - and the "blockchain" technology that lies behind them have the potential to spark a radical decentralization of society itself. They could change the way governments finance themselves, make banks redundant and transform the ways companies are run. If he is right, then the founder of bitcoin will take his place alongside the great inventors. So who is he?
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/10/14
Yesterday the New York Times condemned Republicans for conducting a "grim" and "dismal" campaign that blames "Obama and the Democratic Party (who) run a government that is so fundamentally broken it cannot offer its people the most basic protection from harm." The New York Times can't stand it when Republicans tell the truth... On the bright side, there's a wonderfully cheery story in the New York Times on Tuesday (10/07) - cheery for us, doom and gloom for the libtards at the Times: The State-by-State Revival of the Right... No wonder his popularity is in the pits and everyone who loves America hates his guts. Headline from the London Daily Mail on Wednesday (10/08): Obama slams GOP as party of billionaires then attends $32k-a-head fundraiser hosted by billionaire property tycoon named Rich Richman... Now is the time to say J'Accuse! to Chief Justice John Roberts. The suspicion that he was blackmailed (over illegally adopting his children) emerged after switching his vote at the last minute to rationalize the faux-constitutionality of Obamacare (June 2012). This week, that suspicion was confirmed... The Conservative Treehouse really nails this story: Fifth Child Dies to Support President Obama's Illegal Immigration Goals... Is Patrick Howley the HFR Hero of the Week?
LIBERALS NEED TO BE AS AFRAID OF CONSERVATIVES AS THEY ARE OF MOSLEMS
Josey Wales made the issue very clear:
THE TRAGIC AND INDEFENSIBLE SUPREME COURT
The Supreme Court's decision on Monday (10/06) to let rulings by lower court judges stand that redefine marriage is both tragic and indefensible. By refusing to rule if the States can define marriage, the Supreme Court is abdicating its duty to uphold the Constitution. The fact that the Supreme Court Justices, without providing any explanation whatsoever, have permitted lower courts to strike down so many state marriage laws is astonishing. This is judicial activism at its worst. The Constitution entrusts state legislatures, elected by the People, to define marriage consistent with the values and mores of their citizens. Unelected judges should not be imposing their policy preferences to subvert the considered judgments of democratically elected legislatures. The Supreme Court is, de facto, applying an extremely broad interpretation to the 14th Amendment without saying a word - an action that is likely to have far-reaching consequences. It is beyond dispute that when the 14th Amendment was adopted 146 years ago, as a necessary post-Civil War era reform, it was not imagined to also mandate same-sex marriage -- but that is what the Supreme Court is implying. The Court is making the preposterous assumption that the People of the United States somehow silently redefined marriage in 1868 when they ratified the 14th Amendment.
FOUND! SOMEONE MORE NARCISSISTIC THAN OBAMA
They thought it couldn't be done. It was humanly impossible, declared a global consensus of psychologists and psychiatrists, to be more narcissistic than His Ultimate Excellency, the American Messiah Himself, Barack Hussein Obama. It took an Englishwoman - what else? - to prove the experts wrong. She has taken self-love to its ultimate extreme by marrying herself in an "incredibly empowering" ceremony attended by almost 50 of her friends. Grace Gelder married Grace Gelder at an "idyllic farmhouse in rural Devon." Her parents were not present - "mainly for logistical reasons" - but, according to an interview this week (10/04) in the Guardian, they did send "supportive texts throughout the day." Here's the bride/groom tossing her wedding corsage to her admirers:

HIDDEN CHINA III
Last February, we had our adventure to Hidden China II. Like Hidden China I the previous September, it was absolutely extraordinary. Breathtakingly memorable. So much so that Hidden China III is similar to its predecessor - similar, but not the same. It's been upgraded, and includes a visit to the tribal peoples of North Vietnam - the young ladies above are Red Zao - plus a luxury overnight cruise in the World Heritage Site of Vietnam's spectacular Ha Long Bay. In fact, all told we go to six World Heritage Sites. Our primary focus is China's most stunning and fascinating region, Yunnan. It has a multitude of incredibly colorful ethnic cultures who are not Han Chinese and have preserved their traditions. And it has places that will completely blow you away - like Tiger Leaping Gorge, the Luoping Rapeseed Fields, or the thousand year-old Hani Rice Terraces pictured above, clearly one of the great wonders of the world. We go in early March, the best time to see them in 2015, when the crowds from China's National Holiday have vanished and the weather is perfect. Note, however, this is an adventure. We stay in the best hotels and dine in the best restaurants when we can - but that's not always. We're going to places where tourists aren't. And our schedule is demanding so we can see them all in two weeks. Let's get started. And yes, the pictures are real.
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/03/14

THE UMBRELLAS OF HONG KONG EXPOSE CHINA’S CATCH-22
China's Xi Jinping cannot make any serious concessions to Hong Kong's democracy movement. The Umbrella Revolution spreading from the affluent Island to the poorer quarters of Kowloon is an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party. "If he were to give way, it would set off contagion across the mainland," said George Walden, a veteran British diplomat who survived the Cultural Revolution inside China and later negotiated Hong Kong's future with Deng Xiaoping. "The authorities see this as a matter of life and death, a fuse that can take down their world," said Zhao Chu, a Chinese columnist and star on Weibo - China's Twitter. For China's Communist Party, the Hong Kong drama exposes its Catch-22, the impossible contradiction of its policies. Yet the crisis comes at a treacherous moment for Hong Kong as well. The enclave is up to its neck in China's credit bubble, channeling $1.2 trillion in hard currency loans to Chinese companies. The International Monetary Fund said the "extreme tail event" of a credit shock in China would "entirely wipe out capital in Hong Kong's banking system."
OBOLA OBAMA
It's too soon to answer the question the IBD is asking this morning: "Is Ebola Obama's Katrina?" Yet the Zero Administration's malfeasance makes the question already worth asking. Thomas Eric Duncan is a Liberian citizen with a Liberian passport, living in the capital city of Monrovia. On Monday, Sept. 15, he helped carry (was in physical contact with) a family friend sick with Ebola to her home, who died early the next morning. With him at the time was the lady's brother, who then died of Ebola the day after his sister, Wednesday the 17th. On Friday the 19th, knowing that he had been doubly exposed to Ebola, he left for the United States. It is hard not to conclude that he came here for the medical treatment that he would die without if he remained in Monrovia, and could care less who he infected along the way. Thanks to this, people are freaking out everywhere, especially in Dallas with parents pulling their kids out of schools, as five of their schoolmates were exposed to Duncan after he reached Dallas. The London Daily Mail reports that over 100 people were in contact in Dallas with Duncan, many of whom are now quarantined. So - how does all of this make Zero "Obola Obama"? Try this on. Yesterday (10/01), Josh Earnest, the pathetic dweeb who recently replaced the pathetic dweeb who's name I can't bother to remember as White House Spokesman, announced that the Zero Government has no intention of preventing Ebola carriers from entering the United States. Obola Obama.
ARAB CIVILIZATION HAS COLLAPSED
With his decision to use force against the violent extremists of the Islamic State, President Obama is doing more than to enter a quagmire. He is doing more than play with the fates of two half-broken countries-Iraq and Syria-whose societies were gutted long before the Americans appeared on the horizon. Obama is stepping into the chaos of an entire civilization that has broken down. Arab civilization, such as we knew it, is all but gone. The Arab world today is more violent, unstable, fragmented and driven by extremism-the extremism of the rulers and those in opposition-than at any time since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire a century ago. Every hope of modern Arab history has been betrayed. The promise of political empowerment, the return of politics, the restoration of human dignity heralded by the season of Arab uprisings in their early heydays-all has given way to civil wars, ethnic, sectarian and regional divisions and the reassertion of absolutism, both in its military and atavistic forms. With the dubious exception of the antiquated monarchies and emirates of the Gulf-which for the moment are holding out against the tide of chaos-and possibly Tunisia, there is no recognizable legitimacy left in the Arab world. Is it any surprise that, like the vermin that take over a ruined city, the heirs to this self-destroyed civilization should be the nihilistic thugs of the Islamic State? And that there is no one else who can clean up the vast mess we Arabs have made of our world but the Americans and Western countries?
ERIC HOLDER’S DEMONIZATION OF HONEST ELECTIONS
[TTP has long maintained that voter fraud is a primary means by which Democrats win elections - which accounts for their fanatical opposition to Voter ID laws. Here, Ronald Reagan's Attorney General, together with the former Ohio Secretary of State, explain the fraud of Eric Holder's opposition. ---JW] Attorney General Eric Holder, who announced his resignation last Thursday (9/25), leaves a dismal legacy at the Justice Department. Of all his legal innovations, one was especially pernicious: the demonizing of state attempts to ensure honest elections. As a former U.S. attorney general under President Reagan, and a former Ohio secretary of state, we would like to say something that might strike some as obvious: Those who oppose photo voter-ID laws and other election-integrity reforms are intent on making it easier to commit vote fraud. That conclusion is inescapable, given the well-established evidence that voter-ID laws don't disenfranchise minorities or reduce minority voting, and in many instances enhance it, despite claims to the contrary by Mr. Holder and his allies. As more states adopt such laws, the left has railed against them with increasing fury, ascribing racial animus to people who are trying to safeguard democratic integrity. But there's something even worse than name-calling:
HALF-FULL REPORT 09/26/14
Obviously, the HFR's glass is more than half-full this week with the announcement yesterday (9/25) that the racist scumbag running the Department of Injustice is quitting. The disgusting tearful hypocrisy of his goodbye to Zero aside, this is an event to be savored. Here's a sample of the Congressional goodbyes to the most corrupt, criminal, and law-destroying AG our country has ever had the misfortune to endure... Yet there is more to celebrate than his resignation - it's the timing. There's lots of speculation on why he chose this moment, but the bottom line is he announced it a scant 40 days before the election... Let's squelch the latest nightmare rumor on Holder - that Zero plans to nominate him for the next Supreme Court vacancy. There's as much chance of that as Hillary being able to fly to the moon on her broomstick... We're taking a break here for an important public service announcement. The headlines regarding the Ebola epidemic in West Africa are becoming ever more dire. That of Forbes yesterday (9/25) was: "Ebola - It's Far, Far Worse Than You Thought." TTPers asked our Forum's resident genius, Skye, what could be done. Here is his response. Our suggestion is that you copy and paste it into an email sent to your Congressman, Senator, and any friend who is a health professional. Who knows how many lives you could save by doing so... How many times have you been subjected to flashing website ads blaring about the "coming collapse of the dollar"? Two of the best conservative economic minds put the kibosh on this blather Saturday... On Wednesday (9/24), Zero gave a speech at the UN. The link is to the full text. It was roundly ridiculed and denounced by many conservative pundits. But believe it or not, there was a lot in it that is praiseworthy... We close with a tribute to one of the world's most admirable women...
THE DOUBLE DEATH KNELL OF WARMISM AND DEMOCRAT FASCISM
The Left died last Sunday (9/21). It was a spectacular demise, with 400,000 weirdly costumed moonbats clogging up the streets of downtown Manhattan engaged in a "People's Climate March." What we witnessed was the socio-political equivalent of what biologists call "death fluorescence." They've actually photographed a death wave of bright blue fluorescence propagating through an organism as it dies. Reason TV essentially recorded the same phenomenon in New York on Sunday:
POLITICIANS NEED AN “OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY ADDICTS ANONYMOUS” PROGRAM
[This speech was delivered by Australian Senator David Leyonhjelm on the floor of the Australian Senate Chamber in Canberra on Tuesday, September 23] My name is David and I am an OPM addict. Actually, that is not true; I am not addicted. I might be one of the very few people in this house who is not, because addiction to OPM is a national crisis and I am surrounded by addicts. I am not talking about the drug opium but something far more terrible. I am talking about an addiction to other people's money. Spending other people's money on other people is what we do here. It is the worst kind of expenditure and it explains why so much public money is wasted. An inevitable characteristic of OPM is that so many grand government plans are destined for failure. Before we can do something about our addiction to OPM, we must first acknowledge our problem. What we need is an OPM Addicts Anonymous. Many government programs are not created because people demand them or because the market was unable to provide the services but because politicians have bought favor with OPM. Politicians are addicted to OPM because they use it to expand their influence, reward political cronies and keep their constituencies dependent on them. The time has come to admit: Politicians pretending to be compassionate, when all they are doing is handing out other people's money, are just thieves masquerading as angels.
ANTI-FRACKING ZEALOTS ARE THE ENEMIES OF HUMANITY
Recent news stories underscore the tremendous benefits brought by America's fracking revolution. * The global economy saves $4.9 billion per day in oil spending because of the shale oil boom. Without it there would be a 3 million barrel per day shortfall and prices would likely be 55% higher: $150/barrel. * Rust Belt cities and industries - from manufacturing, real estate and law to hotels, restaurants and many others - are rebounding because of drilling, fracking and production in nearby shale areas. In Ohio unemployment fell to 5.7% in July from 10.6% four years ago; oil output increased 26% just from the previous quarter, while gas production rose 31% - generating billions in state and local revenues. * The US oil and natural gas boom means jobs and business for almost 30,000 companies within the industry's vast and complex supply chain. Indeed, the petroleum industry accounts for nearly 10 million jobs and almost 8% of all domestic economic activity, including states far from actual drilling activities. * The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers launched a new website to help veterans and other men and women find high-paying jobs in the booming oilfield, fuel and petrochemical industries. The benefits of fracking are in the trillions, while the alleged risks are exaggerated or even fabricated. So what drives anti-fracking zealots who seem to materialize en masse whenever a new project is announced?
THE DEMOCRATS’ WHITE VOTER PROBLEM
Hardly a week goes by without some Democrat Party hack putting finger to iPad and swiping out a screed about the Republican Party's problem with women or minorities. This time it was Debbie Wasserman Schultz with "The GOP's Woman Problem." Schultz claims that the Republican Party was "rejected again by a bloc of voters that make up more than half of the electorate." That claim is as real as Schultz's hair color. The Republican Party doesn't have a "woman problem." Romney in 2012 won the votes of white women in every age group; including young women. And Obama lost white women as he did all white voters. He lost white voters by 59% to 39%. He lost white voters of every age and gender. His loss among white voters was completely unprecedented for any winner of a presidential election. The GOP doesn't have a "woman problem," but the Democrats have a "white woman problem" and a "white man problem." The articles about the GOP's problem with minority voters blame the Republican Party for alienating minority voters. But shouldn't the Democrat Party be held accountable for alienating white voters? This is about more than just numbers.
HALF-FULL REPORT 09/19/14
Right now and for the next 46 days until November 4, we are in a street fight for the life of America. Which is why Ann Coulter said yesterday (9/18) that the only thing that matters right now is winning the Senate. She's right. There's no possible way to even slow down Zero's commitment for America's demise with Harry Reid still Majority Leader for the next two years. But she forgot about Louisiana... Compounding the bad news (good news for us) for Putin's Russia is a host of threats by ISIS to "liberate Chechnya and all the Caucasus" from Russia. Lots of Chechens are getting their "terrorist field training" with ISIS, and will now be bringing their skills back to their homeland. Chechnya is one of a half-dozen regions of the Russian North Caucasus with a predominately Moslem population... Meanwhile, the Zero Madness continues in DC. On Monday (9/15), he announced he wants to send 3,000 US soldiers to Liberia to somehow combat the Ebola virus. This is criminally insane. But here's the big question, asked by IBD: If protecting us from Ebola far away in Africa is so panic-button-pushing important, why is Zero doing nothing or saying anything about "the strange new diseases now spreading and infecting Americans here, which at least one prominent U.S. doctor says may be spread by illegal aliens now in our country with zero health care screening as part of Obama's open borders policy"?
IS DARRELL ISSA BEING BLACKMAILED?
I first met Darrell Issa on Halloween. He was a freshman Congressman in 2001, and he came to a Halloween Party my wife and I had at our home in McLean, Virginia. Two of his California colleagues, both good friends of ours, brought him. I make the world's greatest eggnog and it was served liberally. Given the crowd, the conversation naturally turned to politics and geopolitics. We were having a merry libational time solving the world's problems when the subject of Israel came up. Issa, who had been quiet, launched into a passionate plea for the Palestinian Arab "Right of Return." John Fund of the Wall Street Journal and I instantly glanced at each other, for we both well knew this was code for advocating the extinction of Israel. My ever-vigilant bride Rebel noticed, realized the conversation could go quickly sideways, and deftly changed the subject. Given this introduction, it came as little surprise to me that, one month later (11/30/01) conservative columnist Debbie Schlussel denounced Issa as "Jihad Darrell" for his public support of Hezbollah and Yasser Arafat. As a freshman, Issa was touted as "the richest man in Congress" - which he still is, with a net worth of over $355 million. That money, adroitly spent on generous campaign donations to one's colleagues, enables you to ascend the Congress power hierarchy. Which is why, when the Pubs got their majority back in January 2011, he was anointed as Chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. And what has he accomplished regarding the most scandal-ridden presidency in US history? Nothing. Why?
IS CHINA REALLY BITING ITS ECONOMY’S BULLET?
China’s leaders have brushed aside warnings of an incipient credit crunch in the Chinese economy, determined to purge excesses from the financial system despite falling house prices and the deepest industrial slowdown since the Lehman crisis.
Industrial production dropped 0.4% in August from a month earlier, a rare event that highlights how quickly China is coming off the boil. The growth of fixed asset investment fell to record lows.
“It is a shockingly sharp deceleration,” said Wei Yao, from Societe Generale. “What is surprising is the calm response from Beijing. The new leadership’s tolerance for short-term pain seems to have jumped by another big notch.”
Electricity output has dropped 2.2% over the past year as the authorities continue to force dinosaur industries into closure, chipping away at excess capacity.
New credit has fallen 40%, and there has been an outright contraction of trust loans and undiscounted bankers acceptances over the past two months, the result of a clampdown on parts of the shadow banking nexus.
Premier Li Keqiang has so far refused to blink, determined to drive through deep reforms and wean the economy off exorbitant levels of debt before the damage becomes irreversible. “We are restructuring instead of expanding the monetary supply,” he said last week, warning markets not to expect easy money to ignite a fresh boom this time.
But will he and his fellow Communist Party leaders keep not blinking?
OBAMA’S IRAQIZATION OF AMERICA
When it comes to Iraq, Obama lectures the Sunnis and the Shiites on getting along and forming a government that won't exist for the sole benefit of a single group at the expense of the other. But in America he runs exactly that sort of government. Al Sharpton, Obama's close political ally, and the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, his mentor, are familiar types in Iraq. You can find a thousand Jeremiah Wrights on any given Friday screaming about killing the Shiites or the Sunnis. You can find a million Al Sharptons community organizing local hatreds until they explode. Those are the ugly tribal politics that Obama has brought to America. Instead of repairing the economy, he focused on wealth redistribution. Instead of bringing Americans together as one nation, he calculatedly tore them apart around manufactured crises of race, gender, class and religion. He pitted blacks against whites, liberal Protestants against Catholics, the poor against the middle class and the cities against the suburbs. Obama promised us a united America and gave us a divided America. He has shown that he is a slicker and more polished version of Al Sharpton. After coming to prominence with a vision of "There is not a Black America and a White America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America," he shrugged off helping Americans as a whole and instead championed narrow tribal interests. Just-ousted Nouri al-Maliki wasn't the Prime Minister of Iraq. He was the Prime Minister of a Shiite Iraq. Obama isn't the President of the United States. He's trying to be the President of Black America, Gay America, Latino America, Asian America, Transgender America and a thousand other Micro-Americas. At no point in time has he been the President of the United States of America.
THE MYSTERY ADVENTURE
This is a first. An opportunity for an extraordinary adventure has just arisen. Ordinarily, I'd tell you all about it. But I can't - that's what makes this a Mystery Adventure. I can tell you the dates: November 7 to 19. That's leaving the US and return, door-to-door. I can tell you the cost: $6,650. That's everything except international airfare. But I can't tell you where. Except to say that when you get back, it will blow your every friend's mind. "You went where!?" they'll all ask in jaw-dropping amazement. I can't tell you the itinerary. Except to say that once you see the pictures, you will be astounded that these places exist. I can tell you that we'll be safe and secure. I can tell you that there is now a window of opportunity during which the welcome mat has been laid down for us. This is why we must carpe diem, seize the day and opportunity, for who knows when it might arise again. Thus far, I have only told a few friends about this who have traveled with me often before. They understand why I cannot make this public. Yet, being TTPers themselves, they have suggested that I tell all TTPers about it, however elliptically. This is because I have three spaces left and I'm running out of time. There are no special requirements, as the Mystery Adventure is not physically rigorous, you only need normal good health. There is no camping -- we'll stay in the best hotels and dine in the best restaurants in the country. It is for men and women, couples and singles. This is an adventure of thousands of years of culture and history, and as timely as current events get. It is one of breathtaking natural beauty and eye-opening wonder at how friendly and pro-American people on the street are. It is an experience you will never ever forget. Here's the deal. I'll send you a Powerpoint PDF of the Mystery Adventure - it's a big 5.8MB file due to the photos - if you personally request it and provide your TTP bonafides. Like how long you've been a TTPer and why. Frankly, I have to be very sure of who I bring with me. Let me know at [email protected] or Miko at [email protected]. Please, though, don't make the request unless you're sure you can make the dates - November 7-19 - and the cost -- $6,650. Yet if you can handle both, better let me know right now. There's no time to spare.
HALF-FULL REPORT 09/12/14
Can't resist starting this HFR off with Red State's Erick Erickson's comment on Zero's Nothingburger speech to the nation Wednesday night (9/10): "This speech is what I imagine you'd try to say to your mom if she walked in on you playing with yourself. It was awkward and we've caught the President with his pants down." Amidst a lot of dumb stuff, Zero's dumbest claim of all was: "ISIL is not ‘Islamic.' No religion condones the killing of innocents." The Koran does just this and repeatedly. A quartet of samples from a myriad... A perfect example of what we discussed in 9/11 and the 10th Commandment - emerged this week in Oklahoma. Leave it to a Marine, State Rep. John Bennet, to provide it. You'd think that John Bennett would be a lay down for HFR Hero of the Week. Problem is, there's a trio of other contenders... Actually, however, there is good news in the Islamic world this week. Disgusted and enraged by ISIS barbarism in the name of their religion, Moslems all over the world are partaking in their version of the "ice bucket challenge" craze - the ISIS Flag Burning Challenge. I particularly like the topless Femen feminist flag burners. Good for them all.
9/11 AND THE 10TH COMMANDMENT
Any adult in America knows where they were 13 years ago today. In the days following the Moslem Atrocity of 9/11, if someone had predicted 13 years hence that instead of having wiped Islamic Terrorism from the face of the earth, we'd still be cowering in fear of its threat, they would have been thought deranged. Yet we are. How is this possible? Let's ask another question. In his TTP column this week, Richard Rahn contrasted "aspirational societies" where productive work and success are not punished, with societies consumed by envy. He sums up America's crisis with one devastating observation:
"The United States used to be an aspirational society, but has increasingly become an envious society."
How did this happen? It turns out that these two questions - among the most critical questions we can ask of our country today - have the same answer. The answer starts with our society's failure to follow the 10th Commandment of Exodus 20:17 -
EGYPT’S EXTRAORDINARY PEACE PROPOSAL TO THE PALESTINIANS
Something extraordinary has happened. On August 31, PLO chief and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told an audience of Fatah members that Egypt had offered to give - give, as in cede sovereignty to - the PA some 1,600 square kilometers (625 square miles) of land in Sinai adjacent to Gaza, thus quintupling the size of the Gaza Strip. Egypt even offered to allow all the so-called "Palestinian refugees" to settle in the expanded Gaza Strip. Then Abbas told his Fatah followers that he rejected the Egyptian offer. On Monday (9/08), Israeli Army Radio substantiated Abbas's claim. According to Army Radio, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi proposed that the Palestinians establish their state in the expanded Gaza Strip. In his speech to Fatah members, Abbas said, "They [the Egyptians] are prepared to receive all the refugees, [and are saying] ‘Let's end the refugee story.'" "But," he insisted, "It's illogical for the problem to be solved at Egypt's expense. We won't have it." In other words, Sisi offered Abbas a way to end the Palestinians' suffering and grant them political independence. And Abbas said, "No, forget statehood. Let my people suffer."
THE BREAKUP OF BRITAIN?
Powerful investors across the world have woken up to the possibility that Scotland may vote to break up the United Kingdom next week (9/18), with some already preparing defensive action that risks a potentially dangerous flight from sterling and Britain's bond market. Japan's biggest bank, Nomura, has advised clients to slash financial exposure to the UK and brace for a possible collapse of the pound after polls showed the independence campaign running neck and neck, warning that the separation of England and Scotland after more than 300 years would be a "cataclysmic shock." Stephen Jen, head of SLJ Macro Partners and a Chinese-speaker from Taiwan, said Asian investors are flabbergasted by the sight of an ancient and successful union tearing itself apart for no obvious reason. "It is totally bizarre. They simply don't understand it, and nor do I. Until a week and half ago everybody thought there was a zero probability of Scotland voting Yes," he said. "We have always assumed the United Kingdom would stay united, but now everything we thought about the UK has suddenly been tested, and will have to be repriced." Simon Derrick, from Bank of New York Mellon, said the UK is leveraged to global financial cycle and has become a magnet for the "carry trade", sucking in funds from Japan, the Middle East and other regions searching for yield. Mr. Derrick said a 15% plunge in sterling is "quite conservative" given the dangers of a messy divorce. "We think the high $1.40s against the dollar is entirely feasible. People always underestimate how far sterling can fall when the tide turns," he said.
HALF-FULL REPORT 09/05/14
One of Hollywood's legends is that their deaths always come in threes. This proved true when Joan Rivers' came yesterday (9/04), which followed that of Lauren Bacall (8/12), and one day earlier, Robin Williams (8/11). They were marvelously gifted, and we should be grateful for the joy they brought to our lives. As Howie Carr of the Boston Herald notes this morning (9/05), in Massachusetts bad news also come in threes - as it did this week. On Wednesday (9/03), Secretary of State Lurch hinted he might run in 2016, as did Governor Incompetence and Senator Talking Bull. ...Two months from today we'll know if we're going to suffer the undiluted Curse of Zero for another 28½ months, or if it will be diluted enough to render Zero impotent. Here's this week's Sitrep. ...You can't blame Mitt Romney for capitalizing on his clairvoyance. The entire Zero-worshipping Enemedia made fun of his "gaffe" when, during the 2012 campaign, he told Wolf Blitzer that Russia was "without question, our number one geopolitical foe. They fight every cause for the world's worst actors." Since it's now blindingly obvious he was right, you can't fault his timing by penning a piece in the WaPo yesterday (9/04): The Need for a Mighty US Military. However, Mitt is playing catch up with Rick Perry. Right now, Rick's the Pub front-runner for 2016. He showed why in his fabulous speech in Dallas last Friday evening (8/29). I encourage you take 24 minutes to watch it all. He quotes Thomas Paine: "The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government" - and goes from there. Enjoy:
HOW TO PROTECT AMERICA AND HAVE ISLAM BE A RELIGION OF PEACE

A POST-ZERO FOREIGN POLICY
It's hard to see how US foreign policy under Zero could get much worse - but it certainly can as it continues to spiral downward. President Pandora, as Jack Kelly calls him today (9/04) won't close his box of evils until he no longer infests the White House. Nonetheless, the world is filled with opportunities, and it's helpful to focus on how a pro-American president could maximize them. Then we can see how candidates as they enter the 2016 fray stack up in their understanding of them and how they would implement their maximization. At the top of the list, of course, is repairing the monumental damage Zero has done to the American economy, and concomitantly, the willingness of foreign companies and countries to do business with it. This means repealing FATCA as step one, with many steps to follow - such as those listed in The Speech I'd Give If I Were Running for President (July 2011). Next comes rebuilding alliances with our friends. Zero's policy has been to spit on them, as he has done with Israel. A post-Zero pro-American foreign policy would be to spit on our enemies instead. Naturally, this starts with ISIS and other assorted Islamic crazies. ISIS, it turns out, is a perfect example of the Chinese "danger=opportunity" equation.
THE UNFINISHED WAR
The war with Hamas is not over. What we are experiencing today is a temporary cease-fire. The most basic reason the war is not over is because Hamas has no existence outside its war against the Jewish state. Hamas exists to obliterate Israel. The goal of each round of fighting is to soften Israel up for the next round. Hamas will only stop fighting when it is defeated. And Israel did not defeat Hamas. Not only did Israel not defeat Hamas, but incredibly, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, senior IDF commanders are now lobbying the government to in effect surrender to Hamas.. The General Staff's behavior isn't the only reason that Hamas thinks aggression is the way to go. The US and Europe have gone out of their way, both during the fighting and today, to show Hamas that they are right to attack Israel. Mr. Obama in particular.
“WE DO NOT HAVE A STRATEGY” IS OBAMA’S LATEST LIE
He does have a strategy, but prefers to appear indecisive. That's because the strategy would likely provoke even greater criticism than the false confession of endless dithering. The actual strategy is detente first, and then a full alliance with Iran throughout the Middle East and North Africa. It has been on display since before the beginning of the Obama administration. During his first presidential campaign in 2008, Mr. Obama used a secret back channel to Tehran to assure the mullahs that he was a friend of the Islamic Republic, and that they would be very happy with his policies. The secret channel was Ambassador William G. Miller, who served in Iran during the Shah's rule, as chief of staff for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and as ambassador to Ukraine. Ambassador Miller has confirmed to me his conversations with Iranian leaders during the 2008 campaign. Ever since, President Obama's quest for an alliance with Iran has been conducted through at least four channels:
HALF-FULL REPORT 08/29/14
Well... (as "Bones" always begins his Forum posts) ...hours after he pledges peace in Ukraine, Putin Huilo orders his troops and tanks to invade; Iran claims to be arming terrorists within Israel itself; ISIS and Al Qaeda promise to take their terror war to America; the Chicoms dangerously intercept a US recon plane over international waters they illegally claim - and Rand Paul thinks he can be elected president by going to the left of Hillary Clinton? Before we get into the details of all the above, and a lot more, I need to tell you that our TTP Portugal Fall Retreat is filling up very fast. We only have a few spaces remaining, so please, if you're considering having this marvelous experience with us, register as soon as you can. And yes, that picture of the castle in the clouds is real, by the way. We'll begin discussing geopolitical reality vs. Blame America First isolationism with this map focused on a place you never heard of, James Shoal. Then we'll detail how under Zero, the US government has become the most corrupt on earth. Compared to it, Mexico's is a piker. Actually, there's terrific news from Mexico -- and unbelievably good news from Saudi Arabia.
THE ODDS FOR IMPEACHMENT ARE RISING
What do you get when you combine these three news stories? Breitbart, Monday 8/25: Obama to Enact Amnesty for Five Million Illegals Next Week Fox, Yesterday 8/27: Al Qaeda Urges Bombing of Las Vegas AP, Today 8/28: Americans' Pessimism on Economy Has Grown You get a perfect storm engulfing Democrats and the Zero Presidency on November 4. The Boston Globe on Wednesday (8/27) ran this dog-bites-man headline: Obama Amnesty Plan Could Hurt Democrats. Ya think? Maybe. Could be. Just might be. There are 68 days until November 4. That's several lifetimes long in politics. Lots of time to prepare one or more "October Surprises," lots of ways a Black Swan event can come out of nowhere to change everything. What's got everyone in DC weirded out is that Zero seems hell-bent to engineer an October Surprise foisted on his own party - literally creating political hell for his fellow Dems - and in early September no less. Zero's Amnesty will give us the Senate (and, ironically, no further amnesties). But what about impeachment? That requires a Black Swan, for which the odds are rising.
WHY THE ISLAMIC STATE MUST BE KILLED AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE
The Islamic State's video-dissemination of one of its goons beheading an American is an existential challenge from which we cannot afford to shrink. Until the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL/IS) did that, it made sense for the U.S. government to help contain it because the Islamic world, which the IS threatens most directly, must destroy it sooner or later. But internetting that beheading was a gory declaration of America's impotence - a dare-by-deed that is sure to move countless young persons around the globe to get in on killing us, anywhere they can. The longer the Islamic State survives, the more will take up its dare. Either we kill the IS, or we will deserve the wave of terrorism that will engulf us. Killing the IS requires neither more nor less than waging war - not as the former Bush administration waged its "war on terror," nor by the current Obama administration's pinpricks, nor according to the too-clever-by-half stratagems taught in today's politically correct military war colleges, but rather by war in the dictionary meaning of the word. To make war is to kill the spirit as well as the body of the enemy, so terribly as to make sure that it will not rise again, and that nobody will want to imitate it. That requires first isolating the Islamic State politically and physically to deprive all within it of the capacity to make war, and even to eat. Then it requires killing all who bear arms and all who are near them.