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OPERATION ARROWHEAD RIPPER

Imagine it's June 7, 1944, the day after the D-Day invasion.  You pick up your newspaper.  There's no mention of Normandy on the front page, and only a brief reference to it in a roundup story on an inside page. The biggest battle since the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein's regime is under way in Iraq.  Its outcome could determine whether the war is won or lost.  But our news media have paid less attention to it than to Paris Hilton's legal troubles. The heart of the offensive is Operation Arrowhead Ripper, in Diyala province northeast of Baghdad, involving some 8,000 American and 2,000 Iraqi troops.

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RECIPE FOR OUTFLOW

Assume you are an agent for a country that is hostile to the United States, and you want to undermine the American economy by attacking a couple of key industries. Which ones would you go after? You would learn that the computer, Internet and wireless industries, coupled with the world's most productive financial engineering, have provided much of the U.S. economic growth for the last quarter-century. Given that you, as an agent of a foreign government, could not possibly literally blow up these sectors, what would you do?

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THE DANGERS OF EUROPEAN ANTI-AMERICANISM

This past year more than one trillion dollars flowed between the U.S. and the EU. The EU now accounts for 21 percent of U.S. merchandise exports and 19 percent of U.S. merchandise imports, and about 34 percent of U.S. services exports and 37 percent of U.S. services imports. The U.S. is not only the largest recipient of foreign direct investment, but far and away the world's largest investor elsewhere. Of the more than two trillion dollars the U.S. has invested directly abroad, a little more than half ($1.1 trillion) is invested in Europe. Europeans account for 70 percent ($1.2 trillion) of the direct investment in the U.S. The bottom line is that the U.S. and Europe are economically joined at the hip, and any actions which damage trade and investment between these two economic giants hurt everyone. The U.S. and EU have a combined population of about 650 million people, and their combined GDP equals 57 percent of the world's total. The U.S. has also provided...

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ON THE WRONG TRACK

In the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released Tuesday, 69 percent of those polled think things in this country "are seriously off on the wrong track." The "wrong track" numbers haven't been this high since the late 1970s.  There were good reasons then for public discontent.  The economy was stagnant, but inflation was soaring. The Watergate scandal and our defeat in Vietnam were fresh in the public mind. But today the stock market is hitting record highs; inflation and unemployment are near record lows.  Our discontent is less with our circumstances than with our perception of our political "leadership." President Bush's polling numbers have been plumbing the political depths for quite some time. But he's less unpopular than...

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FATAH AND HAMAS

Hamas "fighters" took gunmen captured from the rival Fatah organization from their headquarters in Rafah in the Gaza Strip and "shot them to death gangland style in the street in front of their families," the Associated Press reported Thursday. Jamal Abu Jadian, a top Fatah commander, fled his home dressed as a woman. "But when Abu Jadian arrived at a hospital a few hundred meters away from his house, he was discovered by a group of Hamas gunmen, who took turns shooting him in the head with automatic rifles," the Jerusalem Post reported. That sort of behavior can sow mistrust between partners. At least 30 people were killed and 80 wounded in fighting between the rival Palestinian factions Wednesday, bringing the total for the week to...

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A TUSKER AT THE STANLEY

The Exchange Bar at the Stanley in Nairobi is arguably the most famous watering hole in Africa.  Named after Sir Henry Morton Stanley (1841-1904), the Dark Continent's greatest explorer, the Stanley Hotel was built in 1902.  Teddy Roosevelt drank here, Ernest Hemingway, Clark Gable, Ava Gardner, Errol Flynn, and a long long list of European "crowned heads." It was a great place to find out what the Soviets were up to in Africa during the Cold War, so I hoisted many a Tusker Lager here years ago.  And here I am again.  With no intrigue going on, just a lot of folks ensconced in leather chairs engaged in friendly talk about safaris or business.  I've got a mug of Tusker, of course, but I've also got a wireless Internet connection on my laptop.  What would Hemingway have thought? Yet what keeps coming to my mind is a picture I once took out in the bush not too far from here.  It's of a palm tree: slave_palm You'd never think it was anything special until you realize that palm trees are not native to the East African bush.  You're looking at real and awful history here.  This is a slave palm.

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TORAH VS. TYRANNY

It's hard to think of a more dreadful action against the Almighty than the orgy around the golden calf, while Moses received the tablets of the Law. No wonder, then, that Moses ordered the Levites to draw their swords and kill all the idolators. Yet, as our rabbi reminded us last Sabbath, many Jewish scholars believe the Israelites en route to the Holy Land performed an even greater sin when they believed ten of their twelve spies who said that the inhabitants of the land of Canaan were too strong, and that any effort to conquer them was doomed to failure. The other two, Joshua and Caleb, said that victory was possible.

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PUTIN’S GREAT LEAP BACKWARD

"Vladimir - I call him Vladimir", explained President George W. Bush, "you should not fear the missile defense system... the Cold War is over. Why don't you cooperate with us on the missile defense system? Why don't you participate with us?" The answer is: because Cold War is over for some, but not for others. And because Russia does not trust the United States and feels psychologically more comfortable in confrontation with it. When Jan Grzebski, the Polish rail worker, awoke on June 1st from being in a coma for 19 years, two things he noticed, which did not change since 1988. The name of the US President is still George Bush, and Russia is still talking Cold War. It feels sometimes like Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin did not exist.

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MONGOLS FROM BYZANTIUM

Here's one key in unlocking the mystery of Putin and Russia continuing to pick fights with the West instead of accepting the invitation to join it in a post Cold War world. Pope John Paul II traveled to dozens of countries around the world, yet never Russia.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Vatican made numerous attempts to persuade the revived Russian Orthodox Church to invite him.  The attempts were always rebuffed. Yes, you have a gangster-KGB elite running the country and the economy.  Yeltsin's biggest mistake was not breaking the KGB's power when he had the chance in the early/mid 90s.  So it took over with a KGB colonel (Putin) in charge. That's how we have the richest mafiacracy in history, with Putin The World's Richest and Most Dangerous Gangster having amassed a personal fortune in excess of $20 billion. Yet the KGB-ification of the Russian government doesn't fully explain the more fundamental cultural disparity between Russia and the West.  That lies in the Russians being Mongols from Byzantium.

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DOLLAR VS. THE EURO

Do you think the U.S. dollar will continue to fall against the euro? First-quarter economic growth in the U.S. was just revised down to only 0.6 percent while the euro area grew 3.1 percent, and the U.S. dollar reached an all-time low against the euro in April. (In July 2001, it only took 84 U.S. cents to buy one euro; last week it took $1.34 to buy that same euro.)

Those who have been pessimistic about the U.S. economy (some from the time Ronald Reagan was elected) crow they are right, given the first-quarter number. But, before counting out the U.S., it would be wise to look at the data. Changes in economic growth rates most often are due to changes in tax, regulatory, trade, government spending and central bank policies, much like a runner's speed will decrease if he gains weight and increase if he slims down.

In the 1950s and 1960s, Europe was lean and hungry and ran quickly to rebuild its war-ravaged economies. By the 1970s, it had begun to put on the fat of higher taxes, government spending and regulation. As a result, its growth rates fell and for the last quarter-century, Europe has grown more slowly than the U.S.

But then, not to be outdone, the Washington political establishment did some really dumb things over the last few years, which have taken away much of the benefit of the Bush tax cuts.

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