HALF-FULL REPORT 02/18/11
The glass could be filled to the brim this week, or nearly drained, depending on how events in Wisconsin play out. Because as Wisconsin goes, so goes the nation. Neither the blatant hypocrisy nor the low comedy should divert our attention from the high stakes. If Governor Scott Walker and the Republican majority in the legislature hold firm, public employee unions will suffer a major blow, and the chief funding mechanism for the Democrat party will be disrupted. If they cave, all hopes of fiscal responsibility with collapse with them. Walker’s plan has sparked massive protests from state employees, many of them Madison schoolteachers who illegally took time off from work, forcing schools to close. The protests are organized by the unions, but are receiving assistance from the Democratic National Committee and Organizing for America, Zero’s perpetual campaign committee.
President Obama has presented his budget for the 2012 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. It'd drawn flak from normally friendly places.
The Republican presidential field for 2012 is the weakest that anybody has seen in our lifetime, thinks John Heilemann of New York magazine. Jay Cost, who I think is the best psephologist out there, thinks the nominee will be someone who gets into the race late. Gov. Christie denied again Wednesday any interest in running for president in 2012. But he continues to flirt with the conservative base. Mika Brzezinski of MSNBC is, alas, typical of television journalists today – a nincompoop who imagines herself to be among the best and the brightest. Harvard historian Niall Ferguson took her to school about Obama’s handling of the crisis in Egypt. Enjoy
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THE BLACK NORKS OF ERITREA
Asmara, Eritrea. I came here to see if the rumor is true, that Eritrea is the North Korea of Africa. Strategically situated at the entrance to Red Sea, it's ruled by Isaias Afewerki (ah-for-key), ranked by international agencies as one of the world's worst dictators, in the same league as Robert Mugabe, Kim Jong-il, and the Castro brothers. The Heritage Foundation's Index of World Freedom ranks Eritrea #176 out of 179 countries. Transparency International's Index of Corruption ranks it as one of the world's most corrupt countries. Reporters Without Borders' Press Freedom Index ranks it as having the least press freedom on earth along with North Korea. There are a number of exile opposition groups, in Europe, the US, and elsewhere in Africa that are clamoring and hoping for a Tunis or Cairo in Asmara - a popular revolution that will do to Afewerki what happened to Ben Ali and Mubarak. Possible but exceedingly improbable. And therein lies an important lesson for us as we try to recapture our freedom in America.
THE GYPPER AND THE GIPPER
IDENTITY THEFT & THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY In one of the most bizarre political gambits in our history, President Obama and his dwindling band of cheerleaders—nervously eyeing the big game in 2012—have been trying to cast an over-inflated community organizer as the reincarnation of the Gipper. No matter how often Obama drops President Reagan’s name or how shamelessly his flaks attempt to link this shrinking, spineless president to the bold, visionary giant who turned a broken nation around, nobody’s buying this preposterous propaganda. Comparing Barack Obama to Ronald Reagan is like comparing Bernie Madoff to Warren Buffett: Hustling your clients isn’t heroism, and fraud’s not a formula for enduring success.
REBUILDING THE REAGAN COALITION
To all outward appearances, the just-concluded Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) was a huge success. It was attended by a large, boisterous crowd, a substantial part of which was student-age - a promising indicator of the movement’s appeal to the coming generation. A number of luminaries, including several prospective presidential candidates, addressed enthusiastic audiences clearly invigorated by November’s successes at the polls. CPAC’s apparent vigor, however, obscured the fact that the conservative movement is at a crossroads: Will it continue to be comprised of, and appeal to, all three elements of Ronald Reagan‘s winning coalition - fiscal discipline, traditional family and other social values, and a national security approach rooted in the philosophy of “peace through strength”? Or will it be reduced to a libertarian-dominated, small-government agenda that ignores or repudiates Reagan‘s conservative values and robust defense platform? Upon the answer rests not only the future of this vital movement, but of America.
RAILROADING THE TAXPAYERS
We can “Win the Future” if, within 25 years, 80 percent of Americans have access to high speed rail, President Barack Obama said in his state of the union address. The president wants to spend $53 billion over the next six years on high speed rail. That’s on top of $10.5 billion already spent since Mr. Obama became president, but is a tiny fraction of the $500 billion Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood said is required. The actual cost almost certainly would be higher. The project furthest along is California’s, which in 2008 was projected to cost between $33 and $37 billion. The current estimate is $65 billion. If we weren’t broke and deeply in debt, and we were building an intercity transportation network from scratch, high speed rail -- at least east of the Mississippi and north of the Ohio -- might make sense. But we are broke and deeply in debt, and we already have an extensive network of highways and airports. “What’s disheartening about the Obama administration’s embrace of high speed rail is that it ignores history, evidence, and logic,” said economics writer Robert Samuelson. “High speed rail is not ‘an investment in the future,’” he said. “It’s mostly a waste of money.” But what Zero proposes is worse than a waste of money.
SHRINKING THE GOVERNMENT
The president is proposing that the government spend more than $3.7 trillion (his budget "cuts" also contain many spending increases). The terms reckless, irresponsible and mad are inadequate descriptions of what he is proposing. There is evidence that once a government lets its debt/GDP ratio rise more than 90 percent, the economy begins to seriously weaken and government spending starts to spiral out of control as the interest payments on the debt grow faster than the economy. The United States will probably hit the 90 percent threshold within a year (the current level is 68 percent, up from 37 percent in 2008). Greece has already shown the world what happens when the debt/GDP ratio reaches critical levels. Government services, employment and transfer payments are drastically cut because there is no other choice and the economy goes into the tank. Mr. Obama has also proposed a number of tax increases in his budget. Economic growth depends on having sufficient saving, which is put into productive investment to create jobs and technologies. If government is grabbing most of the savings of private individuals and businesses through debt issuance, inflation and taxes, the result is economic stagnation and increasing unemployment. Put on your seat belts because the situation will get worse before the political class will act.
AS THE LIES COME CRASHING DOWN
Pakistan is a textbook example of a disaster of biblical proportions in the making. Its hyperactive nuclear expansion, weak central government, impoverished, radicalized population, and pro- Islamist military and intelligence arms are sources for major concern. That concern becomes all-out alarm in light of the Taliban/al-Qaida's control over anywhere from a quarter to a third of Pakistani territory and the widespread public support for them throughout the country. Since taking office, the Obama administration has failed to conceive of a strategy for contending with the situation. One of the main obstacles to the formation of a coherent US strategy is the Obama administration's move to outlaw any discussion of the basic threats to US interests. Shortly after entering office, President Barack Obama banned the use of the term "War against terror," substituting it with the opaque term "overseas contingency operation." Last April, Obama banned use of the terms "jihad," "Islamic terrorism" and "radical Islam" in US government documents. Given that US officials are barred from using all the terms that are relevant for describing reality in places like Pakistan, it is obvious why the US cannot put together a strategy for contending with the challenges it faces there. The Obama administration's decision to ban relevant language from the official US policy discourse was ideologically motivated. And in choosing ideology over reality, the Obama administration has induced a situation where rather than construct policies to deal with reality, at all levels, US officials have been charged with constructing policies to deny and ignore reality.
IS THIS OUR CHIEF OF INTELLIGENCE?
Aside from the man who appointed him, the most dangerous incompetent in our government today is James Clapper, the director of national intelligence.
Mr. Clapper, you’ll recall, was the guy with the deer-in-the-headlights expression on his face when ABC’s Diane Sawyer asked him about the arrest in London of 12 terror suspects in London Dec. 21. It was plain Mr. Clapper knew nothing about them, though the arrests had been the lead story on the news for many hours.
Testifying before the House Intelligence Committee last Thursday (2/10), Mr. Clapper said: “The term Muslim Brotherhood is an umbrella term for a variety of movements. In the case of Egypt, a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence and has decried al Qaida as a perversion of Islam.”
“There are two possibilities, and they are both appalling,” said Judith Levy. “One is that Clapper knew everything he was saying was a gross distortion of reality but said it anyway, thereby deliberately misleading the American people and giving aid and comfort to a group whose interests are completely antithetical to those of the United States. The other is that Clapper is genuinely ignorant of the agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood, a thought that is just about as unnerving as can be imagined.”
In either case, Mr. Clapper is unfit for the job he holds. But he’s only the tip of the iceberg.
HALF-FULL REPORT 02/11/11
This has been one of the most momentous weeks in recent history. It will be some while before we know whether the glass is more or less than half full. The biggest development is the resignation Friday of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and his transfer of power to a military council. I’ve already written a great deal about Egypt this week, so I won’t say more now, except in reference to the boob of the week below. If Jack Wheeler were writing the HFR this week, his heroes of the week doubtless would be the House Republican freshmen, led by Jim Jordan of Ohio, who forced the leadership to expand the budget cuts they were planning.
DYLAN IN YEMEN
They'll stone you when you're trying to be so good They'll stone you just like they said they would They'll stone you when you're trying to go home They'll stone you when you're there all alone But I would not feel so all alone Everybody must get stoned Bob Dylan wasn't thinking of Yemen when he wrote Rainy Day Woman #12 and #35 for his Blonde on Blonde album in 1966 - but might be now. "Everybody must get stoned" is the motto of the country. I'm in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, where all those anti-government demonstrations are taking place according to the media, where the next Arab Dictatorship is going to fall as the Great Arab Revolt sweeps ineluctably across the Middle East. Except there are no demonstrations here. No tension. No palpable anger. There is peace and calm instead. Everywhere I go, I'm asked where I'm from, and when I say "America," everyone smiles, nods, and says "Welcome." Yemen's culture is one of the world's oldest, going back 4,000 years. Yet it is tragically nearing extinction - because everybody must get stoned. Yemen is killing itself with addiction to a drug called qat.