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THE MAIN ENEMY: ISLAMISM

[This is the Introductory Chapter of Alex Alexiev's masterful study on Radical Islam's Threat to the West and the Moslem World to be published later this year by The Hudson Institute.  Subsequent chapters or chapter sections will be a weekly feature in TTP for the next several weeks.] The Main Enemy:  Islamism Introduction It is the starting premise of this study that the United States government's focus on what came to be known as the "war on terror" after 9/11 has been fundamentally wrong. The main enemy is not "terror." Nor is it al-Qaeda, despite President Obama's assertion in January 2010 after the failed Christmas Day bombing attempt that "we are at war against al-Qaeda, a far-reaching network of violence and hatred." No, the main enemy is radical Islamist ideology or Islamism. A change of emphasis would allow us to see clearly that defeating this enemy cannot be accomplished by counterterror strategies and kinetic means alone, but requires a sophisticated strategy to defeat the ideology of Islamism by delegitimizing it in the eyes of its current and potential supporters in the Moslem community. The essential prerequisite to achieving this objective is to understand the nature of the threat presented by radical Islam, its ideological underpinnings, and its strengths and weaknesses.  Here is an outline of what we'll be discussing in the coming weeks.

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OUR AWOL COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF

Yesterday (4/07), the House passed H.R. 1363, which funds our Department of Defense and our military for the rest of the year at their current levels.  It allows for the continuation of current military operations, which is pretty important when you're fighting three wars. It also funds the government for another week and cuts $12 billion in wasteful spending. So why would the Commander in Chief declare that he will veto this? Why would he play politics at the expense of our troops who are putting everything on the line to protect us? Memo to the President: I doubt the insurgents will stop and wait for a government shutdown to end before resuming actions. You need to fund our troops, sir. Our troops who are putting themselves in harm's way deserve a Commander in Chief who is not AWOL.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 04/08/11

Aren't Prelims just so exciting?  Every boxing fan knows the preliminary bouts are where the real action is - who cares about the Main Event, right? So - the entire gaggle of DC elite and pinkostream enemedia punditry is going ga-ga-goo-goo over The Shutdown looming over them at midnight tonight - and while this is going to be really exciting to watch, baby, they ain't seen nothin' yet. As we discussed last month in A Tsunami of Insanity, the only chance we have to divert the insanity from sweeping the US economy away is for Congress next month to refuse to raise the debt ceiling.  As we saw in last week's HFR, one Senator who realizes this is Marco Rubio. This week, Reuters/CNBC revealed the numbers.  Brace yourselves, hold on tight.  For the federal government to continue spending at current levels for the rest of FY2011 - i.e., for just the next six months -  Congress will have to increase the federal debt ceiling by over one trillion dollars. Yes, it will take a trillion dollars of more debt just to keep the federales going to the end of September.  To keep them going through November 2012 will take well over two trillion. Gasping for breath?  Feel you need three fingers of Famous Grouse?  Better keep the bottle handy because this is coming fast. 

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FOOD CRISIS AND OPPORTUNITY

I'm resisting the temptation to engage in black humor and entitle this How To Profit From The Coming World Starvation.  While we don't need to go apocalyptic, it's obvious to anyone who goes grocery shopping that food prices are skyrocketing.  And while we may complain about this here in the US, it's getting worse around the world - in many places a lot worse. This is more serious than the price of oil, and that's bad enough.  Gas in the US is headed to $5 a gallon, while in many European countries such as Portugal it's already close to $9.  It's easier to cut down on driving than eating.  We can scrimp and save on food as this report shows, but no one wants to starve. That's why food riots are taking place across the globe.  From December 2008 to February 2010, global food prices have risen more than 60% -- and research by IMF economists is showing that with every 10% increase in food prices comes a 100% increase in antigovernment protests. This is particularly true in low-income countries - such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, which is why antigovernment revolutions there started with food riots. The IMF researchers found much less of a correlation between food prices and political unrest in high-income countries - but that's going to change, certainly in the US. 

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WHAT ARE WE FIGHTING FOR, WHAT ARE WE FIGHTING AGAINST, IN AFGHANISTAN?

A week ago Friday (4/1), a mob stormed the UN compound in Mazar-e-Sharif in northeastern Afghanistan.  Seven UN employees -- four Nepalese security guards, a Norwegian, a Romanian and a Swede -- were killed. The murders were in retaliation for the burning of a Koran more than a week before by obscure Florida pastor Terry Jones. Until the riot, Americans were unaware the publicity hound in Gainesville had torched the Moslem holy book, because most in our news media ignored the despicable stunt.  How, then, did the mob in Mazar-e-Sharif learn of it?  Through Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who provoked the protests on purpose.

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PICTURING COLLAPSE

A particularly disturbing aspect of the accelerating rush to a very possible near-future fiscal collapse of government at all levels - bankruptcy, default, the destruction of the dollar as a currency, the increasing dysfunction of  markets under increasing  loads  of regulations and taxes - is that none of  the potential  Republican  candidates for President in 2012  have provided  a vision that impacts the emotions of this destructive scenario. People see what things look  like now  -- not so bad, even for the worst off if nobody in the U.S. is  starving to death, people still get  their Social  Security checks, etc. -- but they are not being warned of what their lives will be like under rapidly approaching desperate conditions that will be very different from now.  All Republicans give you is numbers, like the x fund (Social Security, Medicare, etc.) will run out of money in y years, the amount of the GDP going to pay just the interest on the national debt will be x in only y years.  People are unlikely to be frightened by dry numbers because they can't imagine what the end results will look  like, so there's no emotional impact.  Unless the emotional brain is involved, nobody is going to care enough to seriously consider what needs to be done to avoid disaster.   What is needed for any possibility of change or at least to help people prepare for the (coming soon) unimaginably bad years is for the general public to have a vision that impacts the emotions of what the world of Americans is going to look like in a collapsed America. 

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THE RESPONSIBLE, THE TIMID, AND THE UGLY

With apologies to Clint Eastwood, we're facing a real-life version of his famous movie that could be entitled The Responsible, The Timid, and The Ugly. For the past year, the Federal Reserve has been the largest single purchaser of U.S. government securities, buying well more than half of all new debt. The Fed calls this program quantitative easing (QE2), or what normal people would call printing money. The Fed has stated that this program will stop in June. Who is going to purchase all of the new government debt when the Fed stops? The Chinese and other foreign holders of U.S. government debt are well aware of the increasing probability of higher U.S. inflation and the corresponding further decline in the dollar. Since September, the Chinese have been gradually reducing their holdings of U.S. government securities (i.e., becoming net sellers). The Japanese had been net buyers of U.S. government debt, but they also will now likely become net sellers as they will need funds for rebuilding. Again, who will fill the Treasury bond-buying gap left by the withdrawal of the Fed, the Chinese and the Japanese?

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TRUMPING OBAMA

Donald Trump is a highly successful businessman and a reality show star.  He has a flair for self promotion which few approach and none exceed.  So many people take him seriously. As Mr. Trump flirts with running for president, I think this is, on balance, unfortunate.  The Donald has never held public office or served in the military.  Since 1990, Mr. Trump has contributed to as many Democrats as he has Republicans. But Mr. Trump is a smart guy, and he's being advised by Roger Stone, a shrewd GOP operative who cut his teeth working for Ronald Reagan, but who has since shown a preference for more moderate candidates, especially those with big checkbooks.  They've hit on a way to warm the hearts of many conservatives. In an appearance on ABC's "The View" March 23, Mr. Trump said:  "I want (President Barack Obama) to show his birth certificate.  There's something on that birth certificate that he doesn't like." This provoked outrage among the very liberal hosts of The View, but was music to the ears of the so-called "birthers."

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HALF-FULL REPORT 04/01/11

Well, he had to crack under the pressure sooner or later, and thank heavens it's sooner.  Everyone on Capitol Hill this morning can't stop talking about it.  Boehner and Reid have just been told to expect a momentous announcement from the White House.  At 9pm EDT this evening, the President will announce on national television that, due to the overwhelming difficulties the nation faces which have proven impossible for him to solve because Republicans refuse to cooperate, he is resigning the presidency effective immediately.  Good luck, America, he will say, you'll have to solve your problems without me. And yes, today is April Fool's Day. *  *  *  *  *  *  So let's talk about fools - and their luck.  Zero just might pull Libya off.  He'll have David Cameron to thank for it, and MI6, which is disintegrating Gaddafi's regime via defections. Conservative contempt for Zero is so bottomless that many don't want him to succeed even when it's in our clear interests that he do so.  He was right in saying the US could not stand by while Gaddafi perpetrated genocidal slaughter upon his own people, and wrong in not solving the problem immediately by an assassination strike on Gaddafi. So now he owns this war which has to be won - for if Gaddafi stays in power he will "return to international terrorism and resume his nuclear weapons program," warns John Bolton who is nobody's fool.  When asked about the rebels fighting Gaddafi and if they might be radical Islamists, John responded, "Yes, there is uncertainty about them - but when there is Muammar Gaddafi on one side and uncertainty on the other, you pick uncertainty."

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LIBYA IN AMERICA

In 1930, Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy made a film entitled Another Fine Mess... another_fine_mess.jpg ... in which Hardy famously informs Laurel, "Well, here's another fine mess you've gotten me into!"  (Actually, he says "nice," but everyone remembers him saying "fine" due to the movie title.) It's pretty easy to imagine him, speaking for America, saying that to Zero today, isn't it? Or would he say, this is a fine mess we've gotten ourselves into?  After all, Zero didn't get us into this all by himself.  So let's talk about Libya in America.  That's a place called Wisconsin and all the Wisconsins to come - but we'll talk about Libya first.

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