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PERCEPTION IS REALITY FOR REPUBLICANS

Any lingering doubt Republicans have a big time image problem was removed by a poll conducted for The Hill newspaper this week. By nearly a 2-1 margin (55 percent to 28 percent), respondents preferred the budget proposed by House Republicans over that proposed by Senate Democrats.  Even 40 percent of the Democrats among the 1,000 likely voters surveyed think deficits should be trimmed mostly by cutting spending rather than by raising taxes. But support for the Republican budget collapsed when respondents were told it was Republicans who proposed it.  A plurality (35 percent) said they trusted Democrats more on budget issues.  Only 30 percent said they trusted Republicans more. 

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THE WORLD’S MOST PATRIOTIC PEOPLE

Stanley, Falkland Islands.  I was enjoying a pint of the local microbrewery's Peat Cutter Stout at the Globe Tavern when a Falklander on an adjacent bar stool engaged me in conversation. "Where are you from, mate?" he asked. "America," I replied. "You're an American, are you?  Well, I have to tell you, Yank, I think your President Obama is disgusting." This did not elicit the response he was expecting.  I raised my glass and with a huge smile across my face exclaimed, "I'll drink to that!" Taken aback, he queried, "You Americans are supposed to believe in freedom. Why do you have a president who won't stand up for ours?" "Because he won't stand up for our own freedom, much less anyone else's.  His goal in life is to destroy our freedom, not protect it.  He's a fascist interested only in expanding his power, just like the Falklands' enemy Christina Kirchner.  That's why he will side with her and not with you." He looked at me quizzically, blinked a few times, then asked, "Can I buy you a beer?"

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WE ARE ENTERING THE GAS AGE

Move over shale gas, here comes methane hydrate.  Last week (3/12) the Japanese government's drilling ship Chikyu started flaring off gas from a hole drilled into a solid deposit of methane and ice, 1,000 feet beneath the seabed under 3,300 feet of water, 30 miles off the Japanese coast. The real significance of this gas flare probably lies decades in the future, though the Japanese are talking about commercial production by 2018. The technology for getting fuel out of hydrated methane, also known as clathrate, is in its infancy. After many attempts to turn this "fire ice" into gas by heating it proved uneconomic, the technology used in Japan - depressurizing the stuff - was first tested five years ago in Northern Canada. It looks much more promising. Methane hydrate is found all around the world beneath the seabed near continental margins as well as in the Arctic under land. Any combination of low temperature and high pressure causes methane and water to crystallize together in a sort of molecular lattice. Nobody knows exactly how much there is, but probably more than twice all the other fossil fuels, coal, oil, and natural gas, put together. The proof that hydrate can be extracted should finally bury the stubborn myth that the world will run out of fossil fuels in any meaningful sense in the next few centuries, let alone decades.

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WHO IS MORE DIVORCED FROM REALITY — REPUBLICANS OR DEMOCRATS?

The farthest known galaxy is about 13.3 billion light years from here.  But MACS0647-JD may be closer to earth than Democrats and Republicans are to each other on taxes, spending and debt -- and either is to reality. Last week, House Republicans presented their proposed budget for the 2014 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1.  Senate Democrats (for the first time in four years) offered a budget, too. The Congressional Budget Act requires the Congressional Budget Office to project federal spending and tax revenues ten years into the future.  This lets lawmakers and staff try their hand at writing fiction.  So who's writing more fiction here, the Pubs or the Dems?

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WHICH COUNTRY WILL TRIGGER THE COMING GLOBAL TAILSPIN?

Which country will serve as the trigger for the next financial crisis? Given the continuing rise in debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios in many countries, it is apparent that a new financial crisis will occur. Most of the speculation has been about when, rather than where. The most likely candidates are heavily indebted countries with a large growth deficit. The growth deficit is the difference between expected GDP growth and the expected government spending deficit as a percentage of GDP.  The way to eliminate the growth deficit is by either increasing economic growth or reducing government spending. Almost all economists understand that economic growth can be increased by (1) reducing taxes on labor and capital, (2) eliminating counterproductive regulations, and (3) putting an end to monetary uncertainty. But what government understands this?  Massive deficit spending has not worked as advertised, for a number of years in the countries listed in the accompanying table. All of them are at risk of even more financial shocks and stresses, and none of them seems politically able to make the degree of necessary change to solve the mess.

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WHAT’S THE FED’S PLAN B FOR THE COMING FISCAL CATASTROPHE?

Perhaps the most troublesome question that investors and business decision makers confront today is, "When will significant inflation and interest rate increases show up?" The next quarter, the next year, the next decade? Everyone fears these, but no one can predict exactly when they will appear. Investment is severely hampered by this uncertainty. The potential inflationary/interest rate pressures exist largely as a result of Fed's massive purchase of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. But much of this increase in money is locked up in the banks because the Fed now pays interest on the bank reserves held at the Fed (and therefore it is not lent or spent), because of increased regulatory restrictions that discourage banks from making loans to small businesses and consumers, and because of the lack of demand for new loans. In addition, many individuals and businesses are holding unusually high sums to weather regulatory and economic uncertainties. Yet, there are many factors that could trigger inflationary/interest rate increases that are largely out of the Fed's ability to forecast and control.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 03/15/13

There is a new pope.  To the surprise and dismay of most in the MSM, he's Catholic. * * * * Anti-American statements by Afghan President Hamid Karzai have put our troops at greater risk, said our commander there. * * * * Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis) has released his budget plan for FY 2014, which begins Oct. 1.  It would lead to a balanced budget in 10 years without raising taxes, because it would reduce currently projected spending over the decade by $5.7 trillion. The national debt as a proportion of GDP would decline to 62.3 percent. But if would actually reduce federal spending. Senate Democrats will offer a budget for the first time in four years.  Under it, federal spending would rise 62 percent over the decade. Deficits would be more than $400 billion every year.  Ryan assumes the economy will grow at a rate of a little more than 3 percent a year, which has been described as "rosy," since growth was much lower than that in Zero's first term. The GDP growth assumptions in the Democrat budget (an average of 4.9 percent a year) are positively surreal. * * * *  Cancelling White House tours has backfired big time.  A judge tossed out Nanny Bloomberg's "arbitrary and capricious" ban on large sodas.  The Inspector General for the Justice Department slapped around the Civil Rights division.

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WHY DO WE STAND FOR FEDERALIES LIVING LARGE WHILE MILLIONS OF US HAVE NO JOBS?

For the first time in more than half a century, "the average American is both earning less and worth less than four years earlier," the New York Times reported last June. Total household net worth is nearly 7 percent below what it had been in 2007, the Federal Reserve estimated then. Per capita income in the U.S. in 2008 was $40,947.  It rose to $41,560 in 2011, an increase of just 1.5 percent.  But because inflation rose more than that, purchasing power declined. What have been hard times for most Americans have been boom times for the federal government and for federal employees.  They, including the president, work for us.  Why do we stand for them, including the president, to live large at our expense, when tens of millions of us have no jobs?

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THE TREASURE OF HUMAN CONNECTION

One of my favorite researchers is Barbara Fredrickson, of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her new book is Love 2.0, in which she looks at "love from the body's perspective" -- meaning that she has been studying how the experience of the emotion of love affects your physiology, including your physical health. Now, when we hear the word "love," we think of romantic love, or how we love our kids, other family members, and friends. We even feel it in what Fredrickson calls "micro-moments of connection." The nice conversation you have with the checkout person at the grocery store; the warm greeting of welcome by a new acquaintance at a meeting; even the moment of eye contact with a stranger who holds open a door. It turns out that these micro-moments of connection are actually filled with stuff that is good for you, like a good meal is filled with nutrients; emotionally, psychologically, and in terms of your overall health.

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A SOCIETY OF ILLITERATES

"The foundation of every state is the education of its youth," said Diogenes Laertius, a third century biographer of the ancient Greek philosophers.  The foundation of our nation is in alarming disrepair. Ours is now the only major economy in the world where today's students will not be better educated than their parents were, said Andreas Schleicher, special adviser on education at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). What's important isn't the money wasted.  It's the lives being crippled.  Only one in five young adults in the U.S. reaches a higher level of education than their parents, OECD statistics indicate.  The ignorance of young people today is so prevalent and so pronounced that mocking it has become a staple of late night comedians.  But there is nothing funny about ignorance so massive it threatens the health of our economy and the viability of our democratic institutions.

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