THE GREAT DOLLAR BULL RUN HAS STARTED
The US dollar has surged to a four-year high against a basket of currencies and has punched through key technical resistance, marking a crucial turning point for the global financial system. The index - a mix of six major currencies - hit 87.4 on Monday (11/03), rising above the key level of 87. This reflects the plunge in the Japanese yen since the Bank of Japan launched a fresh round of quantitative easing last week. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show that speculative dollar bets on the derivatives markets have reached a record high, with the most extended positions against the euro, the yen, the Australian dollar, Mexican peso, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc, sterling, and the New Zealand dollar, in that order. The Swedish and Norwegian currencies are also coming under heavy pressure. David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said a "seismic change" is under way and may lead to a 20% surge in the dollar over a 12-month span. The mega-rally of 1980 to 1985 as the Volcker Fed tightened the screws saw a 90% rise before the leading powers intervened at the Plaza Accord to cap the rise. "We are only at the early stages of a dollar bull run. The current rally is unlike any we have seen before. The greatest danger for markets and forecasters is that they fail to adjust their behavior to fully reflect a very different world," he said.
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/31/14
Boo!
A TREMBLE OF EUROWEENIES
Some of my favorite words in the English language are "collective nouns," the colorful names for groups of animals going back to the 15th century that every kid had to know to go hunting with his dad. Not knowing them was laughable ignorance. We would laugh today if someone said a "herd of fish" instead of a school, or a "flock of cattle," instead of a herd or drove. We know it's a pride of lions, but it's a leap of leopards, a crash of rhinos, a shrewdness of apes, a skulk of foxes. Perhaps you've heard of a murder of crows or an exultation of larks, but it's an unkindness of ravens, an ostentation of peacocks, a bouquet of pheasants, a parliament of owls. Collective nouns were applied to groups of people as well. We still call it a congregation of churchgoers, but it's an impatience of wives, a boast of soldiers, an impertinence of peddlers, an illusion of painters. I love the one for prostitutes: a flourish of strumpets. It's a tremble of cowards. That certainly was the appropriate designation for the French-German Euroweenie portion of participants at the Paris conference I attended earlier this week. It was a conference on Global Security organized by the French Ministry of Defense, the US Department of Defense, and NATO. It had a dual focus: on the threat of Russian aggression in Ukraine, and on cybersecurity. Held in the King's Council Chamber of Les Invalides, among the 40 some attendees were ministers of defense and ambassadors from several countries, high level EU and NATO officials, Pentagon generals, and key executives from major defense and cybersecurity companies. I attended as the geopolitical strategist for one of the conference sponsors. There was no press, and no attribution for anything said was permitted. Given that restriction, here is what happened.
THE EVIL PARTY
Fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly, and Democrats and their allies in the news media gotta foment race hatred for political gain. The St. Louis suburb of Ferguson, Missouri, has been wracked by violence since Aug. 9, when Officer Darren Wilson, who is white, shot Michael Brown, 18, who was black. A mob sought "justice for Mike Brown" by looting area businesses. Many journalists accepted as Gospel the account of the shooting by Mr. Brown's accomplice in a convenience store robbery shortly before it. What they never report is that violent crime is mostly intra-racial. In 2011, 83 percent of white homicide victims were murdered by other whites, 91 percent of black victims were killed by other blacks, according to FBI data. White on black violence is rare. Blacks are 25 to 39 times more like to commit violent crimes against whites than vice versa, according to various studies. When violence is black on black, Democrats and the news media pay little attention; even less when it is black on white. They paint a misleading - and incendiary - portrait of violence in America. And they do it on purpose.
THE LEGEND OF THE LONE WOLF TERRORIST
When I last wrote about this subject (Ledeen's Lair May 2013), they called them "homegrown" terrorists, the phrase of the month a year and a half ago. Back then, such imaginary monsters were bombing marathons; today they are shooting Canadian parliamentarians and security guards, and attacking NYPD guys with their jihadi axes. It doesn't really matter what you call them, because they're figments of the "expert" imagination. The legend-mavens tell us that there are "normal" Americans (this part is very important) who somehow just go bad, and turn into murderous terrorists. There is no foreign input, no alien country or intelligence service, no global conspiracy. The terrorists are homegrown and they are on their own. They are Lone Wolves. It's not so. There are homegrown terrorists like the Unabomber, but these aren't the people we're talking about just now. Unabomber is a nut, but he's a distinctly American nut, and definitely a lone wolf. The so-called lone wolves of recent days-the killer in Canada, the axeman in New York, and, we should add, the Oklahama City decapitator - aren't loners, they're members. They've been inspired by local or online jihadis.
A VIRTUOSO OF MALICIOUS INTENT
Since he assumed office nearly six years ago, US President Barack Hussein Obama has been dogged by allegations of managerial incompetence. Obama, his critics allege, had no managerial experience before he was elected. His lack of such experience, they claim, is reflected in what they see as his incompetent handling of the challenges of the presidency. In everything from dealing with the Congress, to reining in radical ideologues at the IRS, to handling the chaos at the Mexican border, to putting together coordinated strategies for dealing with everything from Ebola to Islamic State (IS), Obama's critics claim that he is out of his league. That he is incompetent. But if Israel's experience with him is any guide, then his critics are the ones who are out to sea. Because at least in his handling of US relations with the Jewish state, Obama has exhibited a mastery of the tools of the executive branch unmatched by most of his predecessors. Obama is a master of mendacity, a virtuoso of malciousness. Consider two recent news stories:
HOW CONGRESS CAN STOP IRS VIOLATIONS OF FREEDOM AND THE LAW
After last week's ruling wherein a federal court failed to permanently bar the Internal Revenue Service from targeting conservative groups, there can be no doubt that liberty and the IRS are incompatible. The IRS continues to seize bank accounts of individuals and businesses without a court determination of wrongdoing. Officials of the Obama administration and the IRS have demonstrated time and time again that they are willing to misuse their powers for partisan political purposes. Congress has the power to correct IRS abuses. One example: Legislation that gives the right to taxpayers to hold individuals within the IRS personally accountable for political targeting or other improper uses of power. That is, IRS employees must have their sovereign immunity protections taken away from them. The potential problems an IRS employee might have with the loss of such protection is of far less danger to the republic than the danger that politically corrupted, irresponsible and renegade IRS employees pose to the public. Here are other examples.
OUR ANTI-HEALTH-AND-SAFETY PRESIDENT
Dr. Craig Spencer, 33, an instructor in clinical medicine at Columbia University and a volunteer for Doctors Without Borders, returned to New York City Oct. 17 from Guinea, where he'd been treating Ebola patients. He passed "enhanced screening" at Kennedy airport, but last Thursday (10/23), Dr. Spencer tested positive for Ebola. Despite feeling "sluggish" on the previous Tuesday, the next day Dr. Spencer took two subway trains from Manhattan to a bowling alley in Brooklyn, then a taxi back home. In the six days prior to his diagnosis, Dr. Spencer made numerous other excursions around the city. Why didn't Dr. Spencer minimize his contact with others until after the 21 day incubation period had passed? Why especially, on a day he was feeling "sluggish," did he ride subways, eat at restaurants, go bowling? What's most alarming is that neither Dr. Spencer nor nurse Amber Vinson - who took a commercial flight from Cleveland to Dallas despite having a fever -- violated CDC protocols. By contrast, thanks to their strict border controls, Senegal and Nigeria are Ebola free. Given the now obvious inadequacy of airport screening, and the apparent unwillingness of health care professionals to minimize contacts during the incubation period, travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines are musts to prevent the spread of the disease here. The Obama administration strenuously opposes both.
HALF-FULL REPORT 10/24/14
Ten days to go until Election Eve. Is it time to play this? {youtube}QvMQWte5pik{/youtube} Yes, there's still time for things to go sideways, and many races are close enough for the Dems to cheat their way to victory - especially in Colorado. But every time I start to worry about Dem voter fraud this year, I think of Joe Biden. Remember his incredibly obnoxious performance debating Paul Ryan in 2012? It was the single VP candidate debate on national television, with Ryan trying to have a serious discussion about serious issues, and all Biden did was smirk and eye-roll ridicule everything Ryan said. A voice of alarm went off in my brain - which I unfortunately ignored as I couldn't believe it at the time - that Biden was signaling the fix was in. He couldn't take the debate or the entire campaign or voter sentiment seriously because he knew Dem Party operatives had made sure the election would follow Stalin's dictum: "It doesn't matter who votes - what matters is who counts the votes." You won't find SloJo being a smart-ass now - or any other Dem and Enemedia pundit. They are all in a state of gloom and panic living in Sour Grapes City. That alone tells you the Pub margin of victory in many races is too big for Dem cheating to overcome. So maybe we really can sing along with the 1967 Beatles, It's Getting Better All The Time. Let's look at some specifics.
FROM TRUMAN’S FAIR DEAL TO OBAMA’S RAW DEAL FOR AMERICANS
If Republicans win control of both the House and Senate, "the interests of billionaires will come before the needs of the middle class," Barack Hussein Obama said at a October 8th $32,500 a plate fund-raiser at the $16 million Greenwich, Connecticut estate of a billionaire named (I'm not making this up) Rich Richman. You can't top that remark for hypocrisy, or the setting for irony. President Hussein did the same thing last night (10/23), at yet another $32,500 a plate dinner at the home of that ultimate trust fund baby, Jay Rockefeller. It isn't the middle class who write $32,500 checks. Those who do expect something in return. They've been getting it. The Obama administration "protected Wall Street. Not families who were losing their homes. Not people who lost their jobs. And it happened over and over and over," Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass, told the liberal webzine Salon. Fauxcahontas isn't right about much, but she is about this. The administration's fiscal and monetary policies rewarded Wall Streeters whose reckless lending magnified the subprime mortgage crisis. The "D" in Democrat certainly no longer stands for Democracy as it did for Harry Truman. Today under Obama it stands for Deceit, Duplicity, and Dishonesty.