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IS THE WORLD HEADED DOWNHILL?

There are many signs that the world may be headed for a new economic slump, or worse. Which countries are best positioned to weather such a downturn and which are not? Countries that have been fiscally responsible in the recent past are for the most part in better fiscal shape than those that have not, because they have a larger safety cushion. In the table below, I have ranked countries (the major economies, plus two good examples -- Chile and Switzerland) on three fiscal variables. The first one is the net of their growth rate and deficit for 2013 (i.e., growth rate minus deficit). For most of the major countries, their deficits were greater than their rate of economic growth, giving them a net negative number. The other variables I listed are government spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), and government gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Lower levels of government spending are associated with higher rates of economic growth and vice versa. So, which countries may make it, and which ones may not?

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THE CRIMINAL CONSPIRACY OF OUR EDUCATION MAFIA

America has problems more urgent than our dreadful schools, but none more serious.  Little contributes more to high unemployment, sluggish economic growth, rising income inequality, poverty and violent crime. Thirty two million adults -- 14 percent of the population, 19 percent of high school graduates -- can't read, according to a study last year by the U.S. Department of Education.  The literacy rate is no better than it was in 2003 and is worse than in 1993.  Of the students who come to his classroom, "only a small fraction have a functioning understanding of written English," said a high school teacher in Oakland, California in 2007.  "They do not know how to form a sentence.  They cannot write an intelligible paragraph."  Even more struggle to make change or balance a checkbook. It isn't for lack of resources.  Per pupil expenditures were $11,184 in 2009-2010.  This is worse than a tragic misallocation of resources, a gargantuan waste of money.  Ponder the fact that nearly one high school graduate in five is functionally illiterate.  Could there be a more egregious -- or more pernicious -- example of fraud?   The fraudsters -- Democrat politicians, teacher unions, educrats -- have done more harm than those engaged in other types of organized crime.  They belong in jail, not running our schools.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 01/31/14

Whoa... the response to The TTP Portugal Retreat has been so strong that Rebel and I were compelled to schedule a second one!  And now that's just about filled as well.  There might be a space or two left on the first one - March 20-25 with a 3-day extension - and a few on the second - April 24-29 with a 3-day extension.  Carpe diem to not miss out coming to sunny, beautiful, historical Portugal with Rebel and me.  In between these now-two Portugal Retreats, there's The Land of the Dragon's Blood Tree.  This was announced last Monday the 27th - and by today, only five days later, that's almost filled too!  I am truly excited about this.  There is absolutely no place on earth like Socotra.  It is "completely unique on a global scale," as the National Geographic says. Look at the pictures and see for yourself.  Please don't miss the opportunity to experience one of the most extraordinary places on our planet.... ...I considered for an entire femtosecond watching Zero's SOTU Tuesday night (1/28), but decided there were far more productive things to do, such as reorganizing my sock drawer. There was, however, one hilarious moment during this soporific soliloquy.

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THE BRICS HIT THE WALL

Half the world economy is one accident away from a deflation trap. The emerging market bloc makes up half the world economy, far higher than in any previous crisis. Roughly $4 trillion of foreign funds swept into emerging markets after the Lehman crisis, much of it by then "momentum money" late to the party. One country after another is now having to tighten into weakness. Neil Shearing from Capital Economics says Brazil, India and Russia are all suffering from the 1970s curse of "stagflation," unable to stimulate their economies to revive growth. Mr. Shearing said the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are in worse shape than many of the other emerging market states, but the strains are spreading. While every story is different, the common theme for the BRICS is that they have exhausted their catch-up growth models, let credit booms get out of hand and failed to push through reforms while the going was good. Productivity rates have plummeted almost everywhere.  That most certainly includes China.

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OUR POINTLESS PLODDING PERFUNCTORY PICAYUNE PRESIDENT

President Barack Hussein Obama spoke for 65 minutes Tuesday (1/28) night, but didn't say much.  And hardly anyone in the country paid any attention.  Did you? State of the Union addresses typically are laundry lists of a president's alleged accomplishments, and of his legislative goals for the coming year. It's difficult for even the most gifted speechwriters to turn laundry lists into spellbinding oratory.  But this was "the most plodding, enervated and pointless national address of his presidency," said John Podhoretz in the New York Post.  "Gone is the lyricism for which liberals swooned in 2008 and to a lesser extent in 2012," said Washington Post blogger Jennifer Rubin. "In its place are a list of half-measures and forced anecdotes about Obamacare."  They were "picayune --  high-tech hubs, broadband access for kids, the minimum wage," said Rich Lowry of National Review. "Is that all there is?" asked Ron Fournier of the National Journal.  The president touched on liberal hot buttons such as gun control and income inequality, but his touch was perfunctory.  This was the most startling passage in the SOTU:

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WHY DOES OBAMA WANT TO BE BLIND ON IRAN?

There are none so blind as those who will not see, and hardly anyone wants to see Iran for what it is:  an evil regime bound and determined to dominate and destroy us, our friends and our allies.  The evidence is luminously clear, but most all of our attention has focused, as usual, on the nuclear issue.  Did the Iranians promise to stop enriching uranium or "dismantle" some of the components of their nuclear program?  How many Western sanctions are being eased or lifted in exchange? And on and on... We can expect the Iranians to prolong and exploit this period to their advantage and our peril.  They've already begun. The Iranian regime is expanding its regional and global power, killing its domestic enemies, and subverting and intimidating Middle Eastern nations that are reluctant to bend to its will.  These matters require serious Western attention, but they aren't getting much.  For us, it's all about nukes and sanctions. Just take a few of their major actions:

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FINISHING THE UNFINISHED

One day in the 1920s Russian psychologist Bluma Zeigarnik was sitting in a café in Vienna waiting for her coffee refill. It never came. She noticed that her waiter had an excellent memory for all of his customers' orders, but somehow had forgotten her coffee. Bluma set herself to the task of investigating this phenomenon further. What she found in her subsequent studies was this: People tend to remember the details of things exceptionally well when those things are unfinished. She had already paid her waiter, so he had forgotten about her because he was finished with her as a customer. What is unfinished haunts us. It stays with us, nagging us to bring it to completion. Benjamin Franklin once said that houseguests, like fish, begin to smell after three days. What is unfinished has an uncanny ability to stink up our lives.  Here are some tips on how to unstink them.

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THE TRIUMPH OF MONOGAMY

The tragic death of an Indian minister's wife and the overdose of a French president's "wife" give a startling insight into the misery that infidelity causes in a monogamous society. In cultures like India and France, it is just not possible now for men to reap the sexual rewards that usually attend arrival at the top of society. President Zuma of South Africa has four wives and 20 children, while one Nigerian preacher is said to have 86 wives. Chinese emperors used to complain of their relentless sexual duties. Why the difference? Human monogamy is an enduring puzzle. Among mammals we are the exception: just 3 per cent of mammals form pair bonds. Our closest relatives, chimpanzees, bonobos, orangutans and gorillas, are promiscuous, very promiscuous, territorial-polygamous and harem-polygamous respectively. Yet we are clearly monogamous by instinct as well as by tradition. Even in societies that allow polygamy, most people are in one-partner couples. Free-love communes always, without exception, collapse because people will insist on falling in love with particular individuals. This pairing tendency would baffle a bonobo, where sexual jealousy is apparently unknown. So at some point in the distant past, we developed the habit of monogamous pair bonding. In human beings, monogamy probably goes back hundreds of thousands if not millions of years.  (See Jack Wheeler's Marriage and the Missing Link, September 2009.)

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FATCA: OBAMA’S NEXT DISASTER AFTER OBAMACARE

How would most Americans and Congress react if a foreign government passed laws regulating U.S. businesses and people in the United States? Probably with justified outrage. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act or FATCA is U.S. financial imperialism at its worst.  It's causing great resentment in much of the world, which is hurting U.S. interests. The administration and many in Congress seem to have learned nothing from the Obamacare disaster. Now that they have destroyed the world's best health care system, they are in the process of further destroying what was at one time a very functional global financial system. In its place, they would erect a tax law whose costs were far higher than its benefit, that may drive hundreds of billions of dollars of job-creating foreign capital out of the United States, and that could trigger a global financial crisis.  Only the Democrats could do something so sinister and masochistic -- and try to stymie any Republican effort to repeal it.

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THE LAND OF THE DRAGON’S BLOOD TREE

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This is the Dragon's Blood Tree, Dracaena cinnabari.  It can be found in only one place on earth, a remote island called a Lost World for its uniqueness, the "most alien-looking place on our planet."  Yet the Dragon's Blood Tree (named for its bright red sap that has medicinal properties) is only one of over 300 plant species that can be found here and nowhere else - like the Bottle Tree, Dorstenia gigas: soc_desert_rose2.png Although it's known as the most alien, strangest, weirdest and bizarre place you can go to in the entire world, it's also completely safe and incredibly beautiful. Anybody who comes here returns saying, "You have to see it to believe it."  That's just what we're going to do.  What is this place? It's the World Heritage Site of the island of Socotra, the "Galapagos of the Indian Ocean," 240 miles off the coast of Yemen to which it belongs.  It's hidden, remote, and far away - yet we're going to get there (and someplace else that's amazing) from your home and back in one incredibly memorable week.  Ready?  Here we go - and yes, the pictures are real.

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