THE SC AFTERMATH
History is pre-determined by prevailing economic conditions, said Karl Marx,
which indicates he knew as little about history as he did about economics.
History has been shaped by what people who could influence events did or did not do. For instance:
*Queen Elizabeth I almost certainly would have fallen victim to one of several Catholic plots to murder her, or been forced to marry a prince from France or Spain were it not for the machinations of the brilliant (and ruthless) Sir Francis Walsingham. If England had returned to the Pope’s fold, the histories of Europe and America would have been very different.
*George Washington was the “Indispensable Man,” James Thomas Flexner said in his Pulitzer prize-winning biography. During the battle of Brandywine (Sept. 11, 1777), British Capt. Patrick Ferguson, an excellent marksman, had Washington in his sights, but didn’t pull the trigger. Ferguson thought it would be unsporting to shoot Washington in the back.
*If “Stonewall” Jackson — rather than the timid Richard Ewell — been in command of Jackson’s corps during the battle of Gettysburg, the outcome of the battle – and of the Civil War – likely would have been different.
*Had the leaders of Britain and France shown some spine during the Munich conference (Sept 1938), World War II might have been averted. Gen. Ludwig Beck, chief of the German General Staff, planned to overthrow Hitler if British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Premier Eduard Daladier had honored their commitment to defend Czechoslovakia.
Because men like Walsingham and Washington are rare, and men like Ewell and Chamberlain are not, human events are determined more by the ignorance, stupidity, cowardice, vanity, selfishness and greed of people in a position to influence them than by their virtues.
That’s why a thin-skinned misogynist demagogue who largely shares the “Progressive” views of Hillary Clinton (and lies as often as she does) could become the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president.
If he wins, Donald Trump will have both the GOP establishment (Jeb Bush and his money men in particular) and its most prominent critics (talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Mark Levin in particular) to thank.
The Trump surge was fueled by the base’s frustration at the unwillingness of GOP “leaders” in Congress to fight President Obama’s abuses of power.
“The loathed GOP establishment brought this nightmare upon itself after double-dealing conservative voters for decades,” said Ricochet editor Jon Ekdahl.
“When Trump first appeared on the 2015 political scene, he was a breath of fresh air,” said the blogger Bookworm.
“He blew apart the Leftist shibboleths that stifle political debate. He spoke truth about our porous border, about Muslim terrorism and immigration.”
But the Donald “has been lying to frustrated conservatives,” Bookworm said. His supporters should back away from him “in the face of new information showing he’s not the man (Trump supporters) thought he was.”
Yet support for Trump is holding steady at just north of 30 percent, polls indicate. I suspect that’s because many Trumpkins don’t know the truth about him. The news media – who want Republicans to nominate the candidate most likely to lose – aren’t going to tell them.
And in their zeal to bash the GOP establishment, many in what Matt Lewis has dubbed the “Con$ervative media” have glossed over – or ignored altogether – the truth about the Donald.
Hannity is too stupid to realize the harm he’s doing. Limbaugh and Levin knew from the get-go what Trump is really like, but pumped him up anyway.
Because there have been so many other candidates, who lingered in the race long after it was clear they had no chance, Trump has built an apparently commanding lead without having won more than 35.3 percent of the vote in a primary.
It’s plain only Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio can win. By staying in the race, Ohio Gov. John Kasich assists Trump. If he cared more about his party and country than stroking his ego, he’d drop out. Evidently he doesn’t.
The Donald is an opposition researcher’s dream, but 94 percent of attack ads have been directed at other candidates, chiefly Marco Rubio, because both establishment Republicans and Cruz view(ed) Marco as the greatest threat to their ambitions.
“Trump is winning because no campaign is focused on beating him,” said GOP consultant Stuart Stevens.
Only 126 of 2,369 delegates have been selected to date, but time to stop Trump is running out. Five hundred ninety five delegates will be chosen March 1st, another 701 by March 15.
Cruz and Rubio must stop sniping at each other, direct their fire at Trump.
Their supporters in the “Super Tuesday” primaries (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia) must vote strategically. They should pay attention to polling, then – even if they prefer the other guy – vote for the Cuban with the best chance of beating Trump in their state.
Though either Cruz or Rubio could beat the Donald, it may be so late in the day they can do so only in a two man race. Rubio has the clearer path, because defeated establishment candidates will back him over Cruz, who has gained a reputation as a dirty campaigner.
The Cruz campaign is “over,” MSNBC talk show host Joe Scarborough said Tuesday (2/23). The day before, Ahmed Diab, a Cruz supporter in Virginia, told CNN: “I don’t see any path to the nomination at all.”
Diab is too pessimistic. Cruz could do well on Super Tuesday. But if he doesn’t win at least one other state besides Texas, he needs to heed the handwriting on the wall.
There are no winner take all states until Florida and Ohio vote March 15. After that date, there still will be 813 delegates to be selected. Trump can be stopped –but only if the big shots put the public interest ahead of personal ambition, and if more in the rank and file vote with their brains instead of their spleen.
That’s not the way to bet, history says.
Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret, and was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force during the Reagan Administration. He is the national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Join the forum discussion on this post