HALF-FULL REPORT 09/26/25
Order Rises From Chaos
The First Turning: A New Saeculum Emerges
The memorial for Charlie Kirk marked the ignition of a new saeculum with a low-entropy, or highly organized surge in a world drifting toward disorder.
Nearly one hundred thousand young Americans flooded State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, with only days’ notice; overflow crowds packed adjacent arenas. Full Video Here
Modern technology such as instant coordination, social networks, and digital amplification media channeled their energy into a coherent, ordered system.
The youth, disgusted with the hollow compromises of the status quo, have resolved to rebuild a better world. Their moral and organizational energy is concentrated, like a reservoir of potential power ready to be deployed against moral chaos.
Speakers framed Kirk’s death as both loss and call to action. Religious leaders spoke of faith as the stabilizing force for courage; political figures underscored freedom as the moral imperative of the generation.
President Trump delivered a precise, strategic overture: liberty and renewal cannot be inherited. They must be seized. Preparation, decisiveness, and moral clarity are the currencies of survival in the crises ahead.
The executive branch’s alignment with this First Turning was clear: institutions must be rebuilt on principled ground, leadership measured by service, and technology leveraged as a force multiplier to direct civic energy where it is most needed.
At the heart of the memorial stood Erika Kirk. Her public forgiveness, offered amid profound anguish, radiated through millions worldwide, converting grief into ordered energy.
She became the archetypal hero of the new saeculum: resilient in suffering, disciplined in virtue, and capable of transforming personal loss into purpose. Erika’s presence demonstrated that moral clarity can resist the natural drift toward social disorder, stabilizing the system and catalyzing productive action.
Through her example, mourning became moral formation; sorrow became the engine of civic reconstruction.
The memorial itself functioned as a live demonstration of a First Turning. Rapid mobilization, coordinated messaging, and shared moral clarity converted grief into kinetic civic energy.
The youth were participants in a generational system entering a reorganization. Charlie Kirk’s martyrdom, amplified by Erika’s heroism, created a narrative that channels this energy toward institution-building, cultural reinforcement, and the disciplined application of modern technology.
In every echo of the stadium, the message was clear: the First Turning has begun. The executive branch, the movement, and this generation are aligned.
Armed with virtue, discipline, and technological capability, they are concentrating their energy to seize the crisis, convert it into lasting structures, resilient culture, and a civic order capable of enduring. Erika Kirk, through forgiveness and steadfastness, embodies the moral pivot of this saeculum.
She has proven herself to be a compass to direct the young generation’s energy toward the construction of a renewed world. She is the direct opposite of the Jane Fondas and other hippy-dippy Boomers that sought to destroy society.
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The Empire Strikes Back: A Global Pattern of Political Imprisonment
Across the globe, from Brazil to Turkey, China to Russia, and even within the United States, there is a discernible pattern of political leaders using legal systems to imprison or silence their opponents.
These actions are often justified under the guise of combating corruption or maintaining national security but frequently serve to eliminate political competition and consolidate power. This trend raises significant concerns about the erosion of democratic norms and the rule of law worldwide.
Globally, political leaders face legal challenges that reveal tensions between justice and power. In the U.S., President Biden’s remark about “locking up” Trump has fueled partisan concerns over judicial independence.
Brazil’s former President Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years for attempting to overturn his 2022 defeat, deepening polarization. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy received five years for illegal campaign financing, sparking debate over accountability versus political motivation.
In authoritarian contexts, dissent is brutally suppressed: China imprisoned journalist Zhang Zhan and activist Zhang Yadi; Russia maintains Alexei Navalny under harsh conditions; Turkey jailed opposition Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Across these cases, judicial systems are either wielded or politicized to shape political outcomes, underscoring the fragile global balance between law, accountability, and power.
The global crackdown on political opposition is part of a coordinated effort by authoritarian-leaning regimes to suppress dissent and maintain control in the face of this changing world. These developments signal a troubling shift toward a desperation among authoritarian regimes. Vigilance and a unified international response are essential to counteract this growing threat to global democracy.
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Trump at the UN: A Defiant Stand
Trump walked into the United Nations chamber with a chip on his shoulder and a script ready to burn. The escalator locked up and the teleprompter failed, but he seized on both malfunctions as proof that the UN as an institution itself was broken. Full Speech Here
From the opening line he challenged the United Nations to justify its own existence: “If I have to do the job instead of you, what is your purpose?” The German and French delegations stiffened.
The old guard of the world’s autocrats responded with characteristic defensiveness. Berlin and Paris denounced the remarks as reckless, while Hungary and Poland quietly applauded the bluntness.
Trump moved immediately into immigration, declaring that nations must seal their borders or watch their countries “go to hell.” Western European capitals recoiled at the rhetoric, while Eastern European leaders saw it as cover to enforce their own hard line agenda.
Then came climate, and Trump ripped the mask off global climate theater. He called climate change a “con job” and mocked carbon regulations as suicidal for national economies. Scandinavians visibly bristled; Germany decried “science denial.”
On Ukraine, Trump accused NATO allies of hypocrisy for continuing Russian energy purchases while condemning Moscow. He promised that Ukraine could reclaim lost territory if Europe acted decisively, though he made no new commitments.
Trump then seized the peacemaker mantle, asserting he had ended seven unendable wars. On Palestine, Trump denounced recognition of a Palestinian state as rewarding terrorism, drawing cheers from Israel and a sharp rebuke from Jordan.
He closed with a fusillade: vows to annihilate drug cartels, a declaration that Christianity is the most persecuted faith on Earth, and a stark challenge to all nations to defend speech and religion before it’s too late.
Some applauded, many sat stunned, and others whispered that American credibility had suffered another self-inflicted wound. They called Trump a cowboy.
The ripple effects were immediate. In Europe, Paris and Berlin doubled down on climate and migration; Warsaw and Budapest aligned with Trump’s worldview.
China and India calculated opportunity in the West’s disarray. Israel celebrated renewed cover from Washington; Arab capitals recoiled.
In the U.S., House Republicans cheered, Democrats fumed, Wall Street flinched, conservative outlets amplified the message.
Trump lit up the Bat Signal. Sovereignty versus globalism, fossil fuel abundance versus climate regulation, confrontation versus consensus, and the trench lines are now drawn.
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Trump Meets Zelenskyy
Donald Trump’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations this week was a declaration of intent.
On the sidelines of the General Assembly Trump bluntly announced that Ukraine, with NATO and European backing, can take back all territory seized by Moscow, calling Russia a “paper tiger” and pressing allies to enforce airspace and step up support.
That statement marks a definable pivot from earlier ambiguity and has the shape of an emerging doctrine: insist on maximal Ukrainian restoration, weaponize economic and diplomatic pressure, and compel allied burden-sharing while tolerating calibrated escalation in the field.
This posture is still being fleshed out. Washington has signaled the intent; staffing moves and a concentrated build-out of national-security personnel suggest a team is being assembled to carry the posture into the next term as a compact of advisors, diplomats, and security operators meant to translate rhetoric into instruments of statecraft.
But doctrine is not doctrine until intent is matched by capability: materiel flows, sanctions architecture, allied operational plans, and hardened escalation controls. The current product is a doctrine in drafting, written in bold strokes but not yet signed into policy.
Any credible Trump Doctrine will recognize that this is not a purely kinetic contest. Russia wages hybrid warfare: drone swarms, AI-enabled weapons, offensive cyber, economic coercion, and relentless information operations that amplify confusion and fracture alliances.
Zelenskyy himself warned at the UN that drone and AI proliferation risks an arms race of unprecedented destructiveness. This is a reminder that the battlefield now includes code, networks, narratives, and global markets as much as trenches and artillery.
Expect propaganda campaigns to be ramped up across multiple channels, using automation, deepfakes, and “firehose” amplification to shape perceptions and undermine Western cohesion.
From that nexus of bold intent, incomplete instruments, and multi-domain Russian pressure, three strategic forks open. Each route is plausible; each carries distinct operational demands and political risks.
(1) Best Case: Pressure and Breakthrough
In this branch, rhetoric converts to iron. Washington quickly bolts a coherent package: increased, sustained lethal aid and sustainment for Ukraine; pre-authorized, narrowly tailored sanctions that hammer Russia’s energy and financial arteries; and a coordinated allied playbook to neutralize Russian logistics and degrade offensive depth without triggering uncontrolled escalation.
NATO demonstrates cohesion by policing clear airspace violations and backing discrete defensive strikes through deniable support or tightly controlled missions. Ukraine, supplied and advised with Western intelligence and long-haul logistics, conducts targeted operations that restore critical corridors and deny Russia operational depth.
Simultaneously, allied information operations blunt Kremlin narratives through rapid rebuttal, platform cooperation, and disclosure operations that expose malign networks. Under sustained pressure, Russia’s war economy strains; Moscow sues for talks from a position of weakness and negotiates a withdrawal that restores most Ukrainian sovereignty.
(2) Stalemate: Rhetoric Outruns Resources
Here, the doctrine is real in tone but incomplete in capacity. Trump’s maximalist language raises expectations: Kyiv is urged to act decisively; allies are told to shoulder more. Yet Europe balks at energy shocks and political fallout; weapon deliveries and sustainment pipelines are intermittent; sanctions are partial and leakable.
NATO refuses kinetic escalation that could be framed as direct war with Moscow. Ukraine wins tactical battles and inflicts costs, but cannot sustain a campaign of strategic depth. The conflict reverts to a more violent frozen state and prolonged humanitarian catastrophe, but no decisive collapse of Russian capability.
Hybrid attacks intensify: targeted cyber strikes, disinformation floods, and drone probes test NATO’s thresholds while eroding public will in key states. The doctrine exists as an escalatory threat but produces no decisive outcome; political divisions widen at home and among partners.
(3) Worst Case: Escalation
The most dangerous branch arises when encouragement to deepen kinetic action meets fractured alliance cohesion and inadequate escalation controls. Ukrainian forces push deeper; strikes strike high-value targets inside Russia that Moscow deems existential to its strategic posture.
Russia responds asymmetrically and broadly with long-range strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, widescale cyberattacks on Western systems, and intensified political-military pressure in contested theaters. Propaganda and AI-driven disinformation explode across networks, shaping crisis narratives and provoking domestic backlash in Europe.
NATO partners fracture under economic strain and political fear; some reduce support, others redouble it, producing incoherent signaling. Incidents at sea or in the air risk shootdowns and force direct U.S. involvement. The conflict, once bounded, slides toward wider confrontation; the doctrine, intended to coerce, becomes the fuse for a larger war.
Operationally, the doctrine’s success or failure will pivot on allied cohesion, credible materiel and sanctions capacity, and rigorously enforced escalation control. Credibility acts like currency: if the United States and its partners can show that threats will be backed by action without carelessly widening the fight, deterrence buys space for victory. If not, the doctrine could fail.
Ukraine has a combination of excellent intelligence and precision long range fires. Russia is being hit in many of the supply depots supporting the war, nearly all the military transportation nodes, and many factories, refineries and fuel depots. The long range fire capability is a dramatic difference from 2022-2024.
Russian factories are increasingly crewed by Africans, with the need for low skilled labor behind Russia’s pivot to Africa. This means that many of the casualties in drone assembly facilities or other equipment and packing houses are black Africans.
Trump has signaled a choice: convert a frozen war into a decisive campaign of pressure, or let a new meat grinder consolidate. He is assembling people to carry that choice into practice.
The contours of a Trump Doctrine are visible; the instruments are not yet all in hand. In a conflict that is hybrid and kinetic, where drones, AI, cyber, and propaganda interlock with artillery, the margin between calculated pressure and catastrophic escalation is thin.
That margin will be decided in the months ahead by how fast Washington and its partners turn declaration into durable capability, and by how well they keep the information battle space from turning strategic ambiguity into strategic disaster.
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Don’t Let Moscow Tell You What’s True About Ukraine
Russian propaganda is targeting our churches. Russia Today (RT) has slipped false messages into pastor newsletters and bulletins, hoping readers will spread them, such as the claim that “Trump is calling Europe’s bluff” on Ukraine. This is not true.
The hybrid warfare that Putin keeps talking about is called Psyop warfare in America. Here is an example from this week where messaging about Trump going full Pontus Pilot and washing his hands of Ukraine made it onto Christian pastor news feeds, the feeds that are used to write the Sunday sermon:
- Day 0 — 2025-09-22: RT (Russian state news outlet) published an English piece with the headline “West frays as U.S. shifts responsibility to Europe” that quoted a presidential remark and emphasizes the line “Europe must now shoulder the cost” (packaged as analysis).
How it functions: plants a tidy, repeatable phrase and a moral frame (U.S. walking away). - Day 1 — 2025-09-23: Translation/aggregator republished the RT piece on a pro-Kremlin English aggregation site and on an EU-focused outlet, keeping the exact phrasing and adding a short explainer for non-experts.
How it functions: creates alternate “origins” and supplies copy-ready text for channels that prefer local framing. - Day 2 — 2025-09-24: Telegram channels and partisan message boards copied the headline and a 2-sentence excerpt (word-for-word) and converted it into a meme and short forwardable blurb: “Trump is calling Europe’s bluff, time for Europe to pay up.” The post is pinned in several channels with hundreds of forwards.
How it functions: turns a packaged phrase into viral units that travel into private groups and inboxes. - Day 4 — 2025-09-25: Pastor newsletter / church bulletin reproduced the blurb nearly verbatim in a weekly email or printed bulletin under a “World News” header. The bulletin cites “a foreign report” but no direct link, then printed the line “Trump is calling Europe’s bluff” as a talking point for congregants.
How it functions: the line now has local credibility and will be shared orally and by email within the congregation.
History is clear. The Soviets rolled tanks into Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Afghanistan. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine follows the same pattern. Ukraine did not invade Russia. Russia is the aggressor.
Ronald Reagan taught us never to give Moscow an inch. If Ukraine falls, NATO countries like Poland or the Baltics could be next. Supporting Ukraine now protects American troops, stands against evil, and defends freedom. Helping Ukraine is self-defense and moral clarity, not charity.
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Asia is Hit Hard: China’s Totalitarian Gap Exposed
Super Typhoon Ragasa slammed the Philippines, Taiwan, and southern China, leaving at least 27 dead and causing widespread destruction. Guangdong province was paralyzed, ports closed, industrial operations halted, and naval infrastructure damaged. This was their third super typhoon in a decade.
Ragasa exposed a moral and political fault line in the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping’s rhetoric on renewable energy and carbon neutrality is now directly contradicted by the accelerated construction of coal plants: 21 gigawatts commissioned in the first half of 2025 alone, with 75 gigawatts of new or revived proposals before 2030.
The Chinese public sees the contradiction clearly: promises of climate responsibility, paired with reality of smoke, floods, and wrecked ports outside the Party’s control. Urban citizens, particularly the educated and younger generations, are beginning to question the CCP’s legitimacy.
Typhoon Ragasa revealed the political vulnerability of a regime that depends on centralized control, moral authority, and narrative dominance to maintain order. These things don’t work in a first turning.
Strategically, this is leverage. The United States and allied powers can expose China’s hypocrisy internationally, support civil society initiatives, and engage the public directly through credible information channels.
Combined with diplomatic and economic pressure, this could amplify domestic skepticism and weaken the regime’s grip on power. Ragasa has created an opening: the cracks in the totalitarian facade are visible, and the perception of just a performative governance is growing.
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Autism and Environmental Factors: A Scientific Revelation
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released a study revealing significant insights into the development of autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
The research identifies disruptions in the brain’s methylation process, which can lead to abnormal nerve cell development and function, contributing to ASD.
Folate, a vital nutrient found in leafy greens, beans, and prenatal vitamins, plays a crucial role in brain development.
However, its effectiveness can be compromised in certain individuals due to genetic variations, such as changes in the MTHFR gene, or immune issues like folate receptor antibodies. These conditions can prevent folate from entering the brain, even when blood levels appear normal.
Excessive intake of synthetic folic acid, commonly found in generic prenatal vitamins, can exacerbate this issue. The body relies on the enzyme DHFR to process folic acid, but this enzyme operates slowly.
Excess folic acid can accumulate in the bloodstream, potentially blocking the brain’s access to the active form of folate, leading to deficiencies despite normal blood tests.
Medications like Tylenol (acetaminophen) and alcohol during pregnancy can further disrupt the methylation process by depleting molecules essential for folate metabolism.
Excess Tylenol indirectly blocks folate/folic acid metabolism by draining glutathione, which is necessary to keep folate active and usable in methylation. This is why emergency rooms administer NAC to Tylenol overdose patients, and have for decades.
It’s not the Tylenol itself but one of its metabolites that affects the conversion of folic acid to its active form, potentially contributing to developmental issues.
Methylation is a biochemical process that regulates gene expression, repairs DNA, and produces neurotransmitters and myelin, which protect nerve cells. Active folate, particularly 5-MTHF, is necessary for these processes to function correctly.
When the brain doesn’t receive enough active folate, methylation slows down, potentially altering brain development and affecting learning, behavior, and social skills.
Doctors can test for MTHFR gene variations and folate receptor antibodies to identify children at risk. Supplements like folinic acid or 5-MTHF can provide the brain with the necessary folate directly. It’s important to note that folic acid and folinic acid are not the same and are not interchangeable.
During pregnancy, it’s important to monitor folic acid intake, avoid alcohol, and limit Tylenol use from the many products that contain it. Health authorities are considering adding a black box warning to Tylenol regarding potential risks during pregnancy because it is a glutathione antagonist.
This revelation opens new avenues for understanding and potentially mitigating the risk of ASD through targeted nutritional and medical interventions.
In a striking display of misplaced priorities, left-wing activists rushed to defend Tylenol (acetaminophen) amid emerging concerns about its potential link to autism when used during pregnancy.
Instead of engaging with the growing body of scientific inquiry, they chose to attack the messenger. Woke pregnant women staged public demonstrations by consuming handfuls of Tylenol, symbolically protesting what they perceived as an attack on their body, their choice. Quite a few ended up in the emergency room with acetaminophen poisoning.
Pray for the children.
So, don’t use NyQuil as a sleep aid during pregnancy. It contains alcohol and acetaminophen. Don’t gobble down Tylenol beyond 3,000 mgs per 24-hours. Don’t take cheap Indian prenatal vitamins containing folic acid. Buy the good ones containing folate instead.
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The New Saeculum and the New Math
Through crises, whether global political crackdowns, revelations on autism, UN confrontations, or environmental disasters, a single pattern emerges: centralized power is losing legitimacy.
The First Turning of this new saeculum is defined by disciplined moral energy, technological coordination, and civic engagement that oppose expanding entropy and chaos. We are going to restore order.
Erika Kirk’s forgiveness, the mobilization of youth, and Trump’s exposure of hypocrisy at the UN show that concentrated, principled energy can stabilize systems, turn grief into productive action, and challenge decayed centers of authority.
We are in a new age of new mathematics and science. History teaches a consistent pattern: the saeculum comes first, and a new branch of mathematics follows to make sense of it all.
In the earliest era, the human-labor saeculum, men and women tilled the fields, hauled stones, and measured their world by hand. Muscle and toil defined existence, and arithmetic with geometry arose not as abstractions, but as formalizations of patterns people already practiced daily.
With the next age came force and leverage, as horses and oxen extended human strength; here, ratios and algebra emerged to capture and refine the calculations farmers and builders had long relied on. Steam and coal then opened an age of continuous flowing energy, and calculus provided the language to harness and predict its power. Electrification followed, demanding the mastery of networks and waves; linear algebra and Fourier analysis gave shape to the invisible currents that lit cities and drove industry.
Finally came the binary age of digital machines, where computation was no longer analog but discrete; Boolean logic and combinatorics codified the new order of patterns and possibilities, turning thought itself into a mechanized process.
Today, this New Saeculum is defined by uncertainty and interconnection: AI, global markets, and networks create high-entropy environments. The mathematics of Bayesian reasoning Here drives incredible pattern recognition while Monte Carlo methods model randomness.
Your children and grandchildren will use math differently than you did and they will do great things.
Those who organize, act decisively, and convert energy into ordered structures will shape this era. Morality, discipline, and technology are the tools to create resilient systems. Informed citizens and networks are capable of rapid mobilization as we saw when Erika whipped the Charlie Kirk memorial out of thin air.
Authoritarian governments depend on certainty. They survive by controlling outcomes: issuing orders, suppressing dissent, and ensuring compliance. Their power is a function of predictability; they thrive when the world behaves according to their directives.
In a stochastic, probabilistic world, any directive can produce multiple, sometimes contradictory, results. The aithotitarian regime’s expectation of linear cause-and-effect fails. Bayesian reasoning, which requires updating beliefs continuously based on new evidence, becomes the only rational approach.
But authoritarian systems are inherently non-Bayesian: they demand obedience to fixed orders rather than tolerate adaptive response.
Authoritarianism is brittle in the face of a probabilistic, AI-driven environment. The world is moving toward a regime of uncertainty, where control is impossible, and flexibility is essential.
Freedom expands as a practical necessity: it is the only human relationship that tolerates and thrives under stochastic conditions. Because authoritarians cannot issue reliable directives, networks of adaptive, free actors will dominate.
Information flows faster than governments can censor. Knowledge is no longer centralized. It is distributed across millions of minds, machines, and networks. Attempting to control it is like trying to hold water in your fist. Resistance is not just moral; it is practical. Freedom is evolution in action.
The storm is coming for the inflexible and brittle. Authoritarian ships, rigid and unyielding, will founder. Free vessels, adaptable and agile, will survive and steer. The sun is rising on a new era, one where liberty is not optional but essential. Those who embrace it will inherit the world. Those who cling to control will be swept aside.
This is already happening. China, Russia, and other centralized powers face internal stress: AI-driven markets, decentralized networks, and citizen knowledge increasingly escape their command. Even within their borders, the rules are breaking.
Meanwhile, democracies and decentralized systems expand zones of freedom where stochasticity is embraced, not punished. The world is tipping in favor of those who can tolerate uncertainty, innovate under pressure, and act without waiting for permission.
Ukraine is demonstrating this for the world to see.
The Future Belongs to the Free
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Mike Ryan is a Chemical Engineering consultant serving heavy industry.