Why Bush Will Win in 2004
A year from now you and I will be celebrating George W. Bush’s re-election. It’s in the bag, and the reason why is deeper than the economy or Iraq. It’s because GW figured out Bill Clinton’s secret while the Dems forgot it.
What enabled Slick Willie to prevail over the greatest scandals besmirching any US president is a certain kind of psychological wizardry called Learned Optimism. Cognitive psychologist (and TTP columnist!) Dr. Joel Wade uses the technique to help his patients overcome depression and a sense of helplessness.
Learned Optimism involves confronting any failure or depressing situation by viewing it as:
1. Impersonal, something that just happened which has little or nothing to do with you.
2. Time-limited, unrelated to anything else bad that happened to you before.
3. Situation-limited, unrelated to bad things in other areas of your life.
When a success in your life occurs, you do the opposite, viewing it as:
1. Personal, you made that happen
2. Pervasive, you always make these good things happen
3. Permanent, you always make these good things happen throughout your life
This is an extraordinarily powerful technique for politicians. But the technique is value-neutral. We’re lucky if the politician has integrity and principles, such as Ronald Reagan. We’re not if the politician is a master of Learned Optimism yet has no principles or integrity whatever, such as Bill Clinton.
As president, Clinton took personal credit for all that was good in America; anything good the Republicans did was just an accident. It was in Slick’s nature to make wonderful things like the Greenspan economy happen, it’s always been, and was in everything he does; any contribution of the Republicans was an exception which had nothing to do with their character, what they’ve done before, or who they really are. Clinton portrayed himself as the unfazed eternally sunny optimist, and his opponents as spiteful, spoil-the-party pessimists. The American people bought it hook, line, and sinker.
They bought it because they always do. Thus, here is the key to why Bush has 2004 in the bag: In almost every presidential race in American history, the more optimistic candidate has won.
Today, the phrase “sunny, optimistic Democrats” is a contradiction in terms. Without exception, every Dem Dwarf running for president is pitching fear, anger, bitterness, and spite. The one who is selling the most, Dizzy Dean, is the favorite. The lesson of Clinton’s learned optimism has been forgotten by them all — including Her Royal Shrillness, Clinton’s wife.
Not only has the lesson forgotten, it can’t be relearned. The Dems’ bitterness is too deep, their anger too inexhaustible. Think Michael Moore. He’s so crazed with Bush-hatred, he is making a movie called Fahrenheit 911 which politicizes The Atrocity of September 11 — and plans to release it on September 11, 2004. Here’s a guy whose anger has turned his brains into Jell-O. It hasn’t dawned on him that his movie will disgust so many voters that it will help GW get elected, not defeated. That Michael Mooreism has inflicted such brain-damage upon the entire Democrat Party drives decent Dems like Zell Miller nuts.
In 2004, George Bush will be selling hope, optimism, and success (with a good economy and stabilized Iraq to back it up). His opponent will be selling the opposite. This is a no-brainer, folks. All we’re in for is a lot of shouting, because it’s already over.