The Osama-Saddam Surprise

Al Jazeera released another audio tape this week, recorded by someone speaking in Arabic and claiming to be Osama Bin Laden.  As with such tapes in the past, the CIA reports that it is kinda, almost, and pretty sure that it is OBL’s real voice so he must still be alive in a cave somewhere.

Well, once again, I’m not buying it.  As I’ve been saying for almost two years now, I think his remains are pulverized under a mountain of rubble in eastern Afghanistan. 

Last month, Al Jazeera released a video tape showing OBL and his El Segundo, Ayman Zawahiri, walking down an unidentified rocky slope.  This was the first photographic evidence offered by Al Qaeda of their leader’s existence since late 2001 — and guess what?  The tape proved to be file copy — old stuff, not new. 

When you fake stuff when the real stuff is so two-plus-two easy to provide, it means only one thing:  there is no real stuff so you have to fake it. 

Remember that famous Mark Twain story about a bunch of newspapers reporting his death, with Twain responding:  “The rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated”?  The simplest demonstration of his still being alive sufficed.  The same should hold true for OBL.

So what’s going on?   Why does the CIA continue to play along with the Al Qaeda charade?  Could it be that Langley — which should know very well exactly how dead OBL is — is waiting to announce his death when it is most politically advantageous to do so?

CIA Director George Tenet digs it deeper every day.  The greatest intelligence failure in US history (not preventing 9-11) has been compounded by the incredible intel disaster regarding WMD in Iraq, and the continuing inability of the CIA to shut down the Baathist guerrilla network in the Sunni Triangle.  The pressure on Tenet to resign is going to mount.  Just when that pressure is about to peak, don’t be surprised that is the moment when the media trumpets blare and the banner headlines announce the official extinction of Osama, killed in a raid in Afghanistan.  The evidence provided — remains, body double — won’t get intense scrutiny.  DNA samples will suffice.

Should Al Qaeda deny it, only then will the demands be heard to provide the kind of hard proof that should be made today.

You may be asking now — what about the Saddam part of the surprise?  We haven’t seen his actual hide or hair since April — nothing but the same sort of unverifiable tapes and letters “purporting” to be him. 

It’s entirely possible I could be way wrong here.  Maybe Saddam is alive and OBL is too, both being geniuses at evading capture.  But it sure wouldn’t amaze me if the Barons at Langley are playing the same Let’s-Pretend-He’s-Still-Alive game with Saddam they are playing with Osama, keeping them both “alive” until such time that the coup of their deaths can be maximized.