Tariffs, Markets, and Traditions

I’m thrilled to share that St. Patrick’s Day is just around the corner on Monday, March 17^th. It’s a day when my family, like so many others, absolutely loves getting together with our extended clan. We go the extra mile (quite literally) to join in the fun at various events, parades, and convention-style gatherings. And let me tell you, these get-togethers are more than just a good time. They’re a powerful display of the Irish diaspora’s political clout. Our leaders definitely take notice when hundreds, or thousands take to the streets in all types of cities, representing all walks of life.

When it comes to marching in parades, I find myself drawn to the Top Hatters over the flat cappers or trade associations. It’s simply a better match for my style, as I’m someone who signs checks on the front and values a bit of traditional formality. As for my granddaughters, they’ll be showcasing their skills with their Irish dance academy parade units, and I must say, their dedication and hard work in mastering traditional dance fills me with immense pride.

In countries all over the world, these parades and shows of strength have been a real game-changer. They’ve played a considerable role in protecting our private schools, private hospitals, and treasured cultural traditions. Standing strong against the constant push of Marxism and woke ideology, they’ve helped keep our beloved institutions and customs alive and well. And for that, I couldn’t be more grateful and supportive.

For those who’ve never been to a St. Patrick’s Day event, let me tell you, they usually begin with the posting of the colors. This is a dramatic display where the flags are brought in with lots of pomp and ceremony. Some people call it presenting the colors, and it involves a color guard selected based on merit. The national flag is introduced first, followed by the Irish flag, and then the event hosting flag. In the video below, the third flag is the official Police Department of New York banner. It’s a fantastic way to kick off the celebrations, and one that leaves an impression on the many children in attendance.

Monday will be filled with music, dance, mouthwatering food and drink, and plenty of political discussions. From the pre-parties held at pubs and church multipurpose rooms that I attended this week, it’s pretty clear that the labor unions are fully on board with MAGA, just like everyone else, except for some public school teachers and federal workers. It’s safe to say that Trump has the Irish-American vote locked up tight.

The melody known as Gary Owen is a classic Irish tune that originated in the early 19th century. The name is an anglicized version of “Garryowen,”, which is a suburb of Limerick, Ireland. This catchy tune became associated with the U.S. Army’s 7th Cavalry Regiment after General George Armstrong Custer adopted it while stationed in Kansas before the Indian Wars. Legend has it that he even used it as a marching tune during the Battle of Little Bighorn, where Custer and most of his men tragically lost their lives.

The video showcases the NYPD Emerald Society Pipes and Drums making their grand entrance into Madison Square Garden, videoed last year. Emerald Societies are found throughout the USA and consist of officers and supervisors who share Irish heritage, primarily in public service occupations. Public officials tend to view these societies as either allies or adversaries. There’s no middle ground when it comes to their stance on Emerald Societies.

Both the NYPD and NYFD societies are MAGA. Profoundly MAGA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNwu8qRllJ0

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Ukraine Negotiations

President Trump recently posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, about communication with Russian President Putin. Diplomats apparently had a productive chat and there might be a chance to pause the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. But, there are thousands of Ukrainian troops currently in a tight spot in Kursk, surrounded by Russian forces. Trump urged Putin to spare their lives to avoid a horrific massacre.

Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff’ apparently spoke with Putin. They were supposed to discuss a ceasefire proposal from Ukraine and the U.S. in Moscow after departing Saudi Arabia.

Right after Trump’s comments, Putin’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, rejected the proposed 30-day ceasefire deal. He said Russia needs a long-term “peace” plan that considers Russia’s interests and concerns. And by peace, Russia means a long-term armistice or surrender of Ukraine or its territory.

During a follow-up news conference, Putin said he’s okay with the ceasefire idea but stressed that it needs to lead to a lasting cessation of hostility and tackle the “root causes” of the war. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, these “root causes” include threats to Russia’s security due to NATO’s expansion and Ukraine allegedly trying to erase everything connected to Russia and the Russian world.

In other words, Russia is holding on to its original position, at this time, but is not overtly rejecting the concept of a cessation of hostility.

What it Means

The United States has recently reversed its decision to cancel aid to Ukraine, instead resuming support in exchange for Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. This ceasefire, while potentially leading to a long-term armistice, does not address the fundamental issues at the heart of the conflict. It allows both nations to regroup and refit, without any guarantee of a lasting resolution.

Historically, neither Ukraine nor Russia have pursued such a ceasefire, with Ukraine demonstrating a preference for continued resistance against Russian aggression. As the aggressor, Russia can regroup and refit at any time by halting their attacks, but they have chosen not to do so. This indicates that Russia is determining the level of losses on both sides of the conflict.

The proposed ceasefire appears to be a strategic move to test the strengths and hidden truths underlying Russia’s position. By properly branding Ukraine as the victim of Russian aggression, the agreement creates a dilemma for Russia, as it contradicts the narratives propagated by Russian state media. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s initial resistance to the narrative adjustment proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump highlights the challenges in rebranding the conflict.

Russia faces a difficult decision, as agreeing to or rejecting the peace deal forces them to confront significant issues with their narrative. For example, accepting the deal would require Russia to return kidnapped Ukrainian children, whom they claim were relocated voluntarily. Russia’s actions suggest that they believe they have the advantage in a war of attrition. However, the genius of the proposed deal lies in its ability to negate the narratives that cause Western allies to withhold support or even support Russia at times.

Trump seems to view the war as a poorly executed narrative management effort, designed by lower-level academics within the intelligence community who seek support from arts and theater types, rather than the hard-boiled business and realpolitik communities. The emerging narrative, allowed by Zelenskyy and his allies, portrays Ukraine as the warmongering, Nazi nation that threatened Russian borders before the conflict. Trump’s goal is to reframe the global narrative by having Ukraine propose peace and Russia refuse.

If Russia commits to a ceasefire, it must admit that it has not achieved any of its goals and has effectively been defeated. Alternatively, if Russia resumes fighting, it will be reframed as the aggressor, but this time facing a White House run by experienced business people rather than mid-level intelligence analysts with their ambiguous sexuality and comparative gender studies diplomas. Russia’s inability to maintain a 30-day pause may signal to its Dragon-Bear partner, China, that Russia cannot be relied upon to support China’s apparent strategy of swiftly attacking Taiwan or Chinese Siberia and then suing for peace to halt hostilities.

The peace negotiations also pose a problem for India, which supports Russia with plausible deniability narratives aimed at its domestic audience. If Russia abandons the peace deal, it risks losing India’s support. Moreover, Russia would be seen by India as the continued aggressor, not just the initial one. If Russia agrees to a ceasefire, they must either abandon it or risk losing the mandate to denazify Europe, finally end World War II, and create a security zone for Russia. This could lead to Russians perceiving President Vladimir Putin as a failure and a weak man, forcing him to become even more aggressive due to a loss of face.

The primary purpose of the ceasefire proposal is to make it abundantly clear to the world that Russia is the aggressor and a persistent threat, with little change in direction from the Cold War era. Trump is flexing his walkaway power to alter the narrative. In his book “The Art of the Deal,” Trump emphasized the importance of bold negotiating tactics to expose an opponent’s strengths and weaknesses.

If Russia accepts the deal, it reveals critical weaknesses, whether in manpower, finances, material, or willpower. If Russia outright rejects the proposal, it indicates that they perceive themselves as having sufficient resources to continue the conflict. They did not do this.

Ultimately, Russia’s response to the ceasefire offer carries significant implications for the ongoing war and the global perception of the nation’s role in the conflict.

In this round, Putin played his hand to save face with his domestic audience. This matters.

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Activist Judicial Decision

A recent ruling by a federal judge has reinstated a member of the board overseeing personnel disputes for federal workers. The judge ruled that President Donald Trump did not have the authority to remove her without proper justification.

This situation highlights a constitutional conflict between the branches of government, as Trump claims the power to hire and dismiss all members of the executive branch, while Congress places limits on the removal of leaders of independent agencies like the Merit Systems Protection Board.

The board members are appointed for seven-year terms and can only be removed for reasons such as inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office, as per a 1978 Carter-Era statute. However, Trump notified board member Cathy Harris, whose term runs until March 2028, that she was terminated immediately without any explanation. Harris subsequently sued to retain her position.

The judge, Rudolph Contreras, stated that the government was not arguing Harris’s inefficiency, as the board had cleared nearly 99% of its approximately 3,800 case backlog by January 2025. He cited Supreme Court precedent indicating that Trump could not remove Harris without a valid reason.

Judge Contreras, who presided over the FISA court that prosecuted General Michael Flynn and later recused himself due to potential conflicts of interest raised by Flynn’s defense, was appointed as a federal district judge by John Roberts. This appointment has once again brought attention to Roberts’ pattern of showing deference to judges with possible, though unconfirmed, connections to the intelligence community.

Before his legal career, Contreras held an executive-level management position at the Miami Herald newspaper. He has been a strong supporter of Merrick Garland and Nancy Pelosi and the go-to judge in matters of interest two both, and was the judge who halted the lockdown debate during the Covid-19 pandemic. These factors suggest that Contreras may have close ties to influential elements within the deep state.

The judge emphasized that the President has no discretion in this matter and cannot remove Harris without cause. Harris, who joined the board in June 2022, is fighting this battle to protect against the dismantling of federal agencies that guard against corruption, grift, and political interference within the civil service.

When activist judges instruct the President on hiring or firing within the Executive Branch, they’re overstepping their authority and violating the U.S. Constitution. Such actions can lead to disciplinary measures, even their removal.

The Constitution clearly states in Article II that executive power is vested in the President. It’s unequivocal. If the President doesn’t comply with these unlawful orders while awaiting the Supreme Court’s intervention, he can’t be prosecuted. According to the latest ruling from our highest court, no judge can adjudicate any criminal or civil charges on this matter.

Essentially, an unlawful order from an activist judge has no real impact, besides potentially tarnishing their reputation and jeopardizing their career. They also can’t order Executive Branch employees to disobey the President or charge them for following the President’s orders, thanks to the separation of powers.

To remind the activists, as per a Supreme Court ruling, “The Court thus concludes that the President is absolutely immune from criminal prosecution for conduct within his exclusive sphere of constitutional authority.” Ultimately, this clarification is beneficial. In a few years, all these precedents and statutes established during the rogue Carter, Obama, and Biden Administrations will be tested and corrected. It might take a while, but the Constitution remains the supreme law.

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Tariffs

As of publishing time, we have a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada scheduled to launch next month, except for Canadian energy which has a 10% tariff. These apply to finished products in the automotive, manufacturing, and retail sectors, but not to higher order goods that aren’t sold directly to consumers.

We also have a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, affecting electronics and consumer goods.

There’s a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and we’re set to start a 25% tariff on lumber and forest products on April 2.

We’re in talks about possibly putting a 25% tariff on cars and industrial goods from the EU, but nothing’s been decided yet. However, it looks like a 200% tariff on wine and spirits from the EU is on the radar.

It appears that everyone in the mainstream media has suddenly become an advocate for Austrian economics and the principles of the Mount Pelerin Society, which endorse classical liberalism, free market economics, and small government.

Undeniably, the world order that we’ve known since the end of World War II until recently has come to an end. The United States has declared that the era of enduring tariffs on American goods and services, without reciprocal tariffs being imposed by the U.S., is over. We’ve entered a new era.

Since the time of the Bretton Woods Agreement, global trade relations have been based on the understanding that the United States would guarantee freedom of the seas. This meant we’d handle the security of international waterways for trade. We also agreed to accept tariffs on our goods, which often made our products more expensive abroad and led to deindustrialization and the hollowing out of the blue-collar workforce at home.

In return, we promoted global trade in U.S. dollars. This arrangement was part of the deal for nations joining the Western alliance against the Soviet Union. Another key part of this arrangement was these nations agreeing to hold the dollar as the global reserve currency, essentially making it the backbone of international trade and finance.

The United States is facing challenges in maintaining the freedom of the seas due to the advent of autonomous weapons and the potential obsolescence of the aircraft carrier battle group.

Additionally, foreign competitors are no longer lacking in intellectual and financial capital to dominate markets. Our blue-collar workforce is undergoing a humanitarian crisis, and e-currencies are likely to replace the dollar and diminish the relevance of central banks. Furthermore, the USSR has transformed into the Russian Federation, which is currently unable to defeat Ukraine.

Trump and his economic advisors are committed to implementing and enforcing temporary tariffs until the permanent tariffs imposed on American goods and services are lifted. Once this is achieved, tariffs will no longer be logical, as each country will benefit more from non-tariff trade.

This is particularly relevant for nations like Canada and Mexico, who have been accused of exploiting the USMCA. For instance, the world’s largest automobile plant, owned by China, is being built in Mexico, thus qualifying for free trade with the USA. Similarly, Canada allows companies, such as the Indian TATA Group, to purchase office space and then trans-ship Indian goods to the USA via Canada, exploiting the USMCA.

These tariffs will undoubtedly cause significant difficulties in Mexico and Canada and may even influence Canadian elections. However, Trump seems determined to stay the course until the USMCA loopholes, the weaponized and targeted anti-American globalization, and the permanent tariffs are rectified.

From a personal perspective, I don’t know what to charge Canadian customers currently, and they don’t know the tax implications of hiring American engineering companies. Sure, soon enough we will figure it out, but cross border sales have stopped for the moment.

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Markets

The stock market experienced another turbulent day due to new tariff threats and mixed inflation news. The S&P 500 fell by 1.4% this week entering its first correction since October 2023, which is a drop of over 10% from its record high on February 19. The Nasdaq Composite went down by nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.3%.

This volatility was triggered by President Trump’s threat to impose 200% tariffs on alcohol imports from the European Union. This was in response to the EU’s retaliation against his tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Investors were also keeping an eye on an inflation gauge, which indicated that wholesale prices remained stable in February. There are growing concerns about inflation, as Trump’s import tariffs could potentially drive up prices and negatively impact growth.

Adding to the market’s unease is the recent imposition and subsequent delay of a 25% import tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada by the Trump administration. In response, Canada implemented its own retaliatory tariffs.

Since its peak on February 19, the S&P has lost an estimated $5.3 trillion, down from a high of about $52 trillion. The Nasdaq entered a correction last week and has dropped more than 14% from its high in December. The Dow has fallen over 9% from its record high.

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week.

In response to these developments, investors sought safe-haven assets. Gold prices rose by 1.5% to $2,984.30 a troy ounce, setting another record high. Treasury yields fell as prices increased, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.275%, down from 4.315% on Wednesday.

Ouch.
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Mike Ryan is a chemical engineering consultant to heavy industry.