WHY MAIL-IN VOTING WILL NOT DECIDE OR DELAY THIS ELECTION
Most of the people supporting Trump in this election are confident that he will get more votes than he got in 2016 but are afraid that fraudulent mail-in votes will illegally steal the election — or that we will have to wait weeks before we know the results because “so many states” are allowing ballots to arrive long after the November 3, 2020 election day.
Based on a study of the voting rules in each state, and the 2016 electoral map, it appears that neither of those things are likely to happen.
First, as the map above shows, only 10 states mail ballots to every voter on their registration rolls. (Indicated by the word MAIL in Yellow) Now that is a horrible and stupid thing to do because the voter rolls are totally outdated and those states will have no idea how many more ballots “could come in” after election day or who sent those ballots back. Cheating will be exponentially easier in those states because of those laws.
But does it matter?
Why not? Because of those 10 states, 8 of them are Blue States that Trump lost in 2016 and so it doesn’t matter if they cheat because he doesn’t need them to win the electoral vote. Of the two states Trump won in 2016 that mail ballots to everyone, Utah and Arizona, he isn’t going to lose Utah and he is very likely to win Arizona again.
That is not the same as mailing ballots to everyone. The reason is that the voter then has to send in a request for an absentee ballot to be sent to them and their voter registration is checked before doing so. Plus, and this is important, the Board of Election then knows how many ballots are still out there and have not been voted the day after the election.
So you can’t just easily manufacture ballots after the election, like the states that mail out actual ballots to everyone, because they had to be requested and had to be postmarked by election day.
Now, as the map above indicates, because of Covid, 45 of the states are allowing people to vote absentee, but 35 of them require the voter to request a ballot. Again, the BOE will know who has ballots, which ones were received before the election, and how many are outstanding. So, unless the number of outstanding absentee ballots is greater than the margin of victory for Trump, they will not matter.
As this map shows, the margin of victory for Trump was very small in six states – Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and New Mexico. However, the margin of loss for Trump was also narrow in four states – Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Colorado.
Trump is leading in Minnesota and New Hampshire and is expect to win those 14 Electoral votes. Giving him 320 if he were to hold on to all the other states he won close in 2016.
He could lose both Pennsylvania and Michigan and still win the electoral college handily with 284 electoral votes. Then he could lose Wisconsin’s 10 votes and still have 274. He could lose Florida, which he will not because of the Hispanic vote, but if he did lose Florida’s 29 votes, and won Michigan but lost Pennsylvania, he would still have 271 Electoral Votes and would win.
This is why I believe Trump losing is highly unlikely, that is much more that Trump will win big. For it is likely that he will keep all of his 2016 states and win Minnesota and New Hampshire — and has a good chance to pick up Nevada, Colorado and Virginia. That would give him 348 electoral votes and wins in 35 of the 50 states and win the popular vote.
Why could that happen, why is that more likely, when the “polls” are saying the Biden is winning by 15%? Here is why:
- In 2016 only 77% of Republicans backed Trump – this year it is 96%. That’s 10,000,000 votes.
- In 2016 only 81% of Evangelical Christians voted for Trump this year it is projected to be 90%.
- In 2016 Trump got just 28% of the Hispanic vote, this year the “polls” are predicting he will get a record 36.5%. That’s 4.4 Million more Trump Votes and a swing of 8.8 Million votes if those voters voted for Clinton in 2016.
- In 2016 Trump got just 45% of the Catholic vote, but this year he is projected to win 53%, in part because of support by Hispanic Catholics. That’s 6.2 Million votes and a swing of 12.4 Million votes if those voters voted for Clinton in 2016.
- In 2016 Trump got just 24% of the Jewish vote but this year they are predicting he will get 28% or more.
- Finally, and very importantly, In 2016 Trump go just 8% of the Black American vote but this year “polls” are predicting at least 15% and perhaps as much as 20% of the black vote. That’s 3.4 Million more votes for Trump and is really a 6.8 million vote swing if those black voters voted for Clinton in 2016.
Any one of those things keeps the Democrats from winning. All of those things make this election a Trump landslide.
The Democrats lost in 2016, so which demographic are they projected to gain votes in? Union workers – no chance. Gays – insignificant as a voting block. People under 25 – polling already shows they are not even going to turn out, and if they do many will vote Libertarian or Green Party, not Dem. Suburban women — not when Antifa wants to burn down their suburb and defund the police.
So what is Joe Biden’s base? Nothing. He has no base. That is why nobody shows up when he appears in public. The lie that Joe Biden is winning by 15% is nothing but propaganda intended to suppress the Trump vote.
I’ll tell you what is going to suppress Biden’s base even more, appointing Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court a week before the election and securing a 6-3 (okay, 5-4) conservative majority for the next 20 years.
That is going to suppress all the abortion feminazis who will finally understand that they have lost the fight for Roe v Wade and that the loser Democrat/Socialists – particularly Obama and Biden – let them down. No need to vote this election for that block because they will have lost before the election!
Finally, there’s concern about what an extended delay of the election results could mean for Trump.
First, there are dynamics at work that are really making it unlikely that tons of ballots are going to arrive after election day. Due to all the news stories about postal workers destroying ballots, mail-in ballots being rejected for various technical reasons, and other stories about election cheating with mail-in ballots voters are worried that their absentee ballot will not be counted.
So most everyone voting absentee is mailing back their ballot immediately after getting them. This is combined with another phenomena — huge numbers of voters are voting in-person before election day. That combined with what is happening with early absentee voting is making it likely that 70% – 80% of votes will have been cast before election day. All of those votes will be counted and announced right after polls close on election day in most every state.
In Ohio, for example, one top election official told me that we will know who has won the state early after polls close because 98% of the ballots will have been cast.
Then, take another look at this map:
I have indicated in yellow the states that are going to allow votes to be counted after November 3rd and by how many days. Only 15 states are counting ballots after election day (Michigan’s court just struck down their rule). Nine are red states that Trump won, and only one — Pennsylvania — is close enough for votes counted after the election to make a difference.
So, Pennsylvania is the likely troublemaker in delaying an outcome (thanks to John Roberts) — but only for three days, not weeks. Except that we saw earlier that Trump may not need Pennsylvania because he is well-positioned to win Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Despite what the media will tell you, this election is straightforward. If Trump voters turn out in the numbers they’re projected to, no amount of leftist shenanigans can undo the people’s will.
They know it, too. Watch any left-leaning morning show and look how angry everyone is at NBC, CBS, and CNN, to name a few. If Biden were actually winning by 15%, they would be cheerful – but they’re not.
They know he’s done for. We just need to do our job, turn out, and vote Republican down-ballot because we know that any Republican is better than a communist Democrat-Socialist.
Tom Zawistowski is the president of the We the People Convention.